The PYN Elite Fund, a Finnish investment fund that holds a number of stocks listed on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange has issued an investor letter suggesting Vietnam’s VN-index could reach as high as 1,700 points by the end of the year. This would be an increase of 34.79 percent over Wednesday’s close. 

This seems very optimistic–in the first six months of this year the VN-Index climbed just 10.27 percent–it would more or less need to climb three times faster in the last six months of the year than it did in the first six.

It’s also worth noting that a lot of Vietnamese firms are carrying a lot of debt and there is increasing pressure on the local currency that is only being kept at bay through issuing treasury bills and spending US dollar reserves which are being run down pretty quickly. The point being, that It wouldn’t take much for the State Bank to raise interest rates and if that were to happen it would likely do some pretty hefty damage to the VN-Index.

Furthermore, PYN Elite’s assessment also seems to buck the trend among foreign investors which are pulling out of the market to the turn of billions of dollars. South Korea’s SK Group, Taiwan’s Fubon, and BlackRock from the US, for example.

See also: Vietnam’s Foreign Investor Stock Sell-Off: Unpacked 2024