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Vietnam’s currency is on a floating peg that is managed by the State Bank of Vietnam. This means that the currency does not always behave as it might in other parts of the world. This section monitors Vietnam currency news including changes in monetary and fiscal policy, the exchange rate, and State Bank policies and objectives.
This Vietnamese Dong Tracker records the latest news and developments with respect to the local currency. It includes the current prices as well as State Bank of Vietnam monetary policy and open market operations including treasury bill issuances and interbank lending.
Notably, this may be problematic with Vietnam already on the US currency manipulator watchlist after meeting two of the three criteria, namely a material account surplus greater than 3 percent of GDP and a goods surplus with the US greater than US$15 billion. It has thus far, however, failed to meet the third criteria: foreign currency purchases in eight out of 12 consecutive months, worth more than 2 percent of GDP…
Of note, since the start of the year, the Vietnamese dong has only devalued against the US dollar by about 4.5 percent since January 1. This has been on the back of efforts by the State Bank to keep the local currency from devaluing further against the US dollar by issuing treasury bills and burning through its US dollar and gold reserves…
Earlier this year the Japanese yen hit a 38-year low against the greenback and it’s currently sitting about 15 percent lower now than it was at the start of the year. Similarly, the Vietnamese dong took a big fall but has been propped up by the State Bank which has by extension kept the local currency higher against the Yen too. This article looks at what that might mean for Vietnam…
The SBV struggled to keep the dong from devaluing beyond 25,450 last week. Over the course of the week it issued US$1.2 billion in treasury bills to suck up liquidity and sold about US$520 million from its US dollar reserves, but still finished the week where it started. This latest development suggests that there might be more of the same this week…
Of note, the foreign currency criteria only addresses purchasing activity but not selling activity. Vietnam, however, has been dipping into its foreign currency reserves in order to stop the dong from devaluing since April… This speaks to Vietnam’s motives in the way it manages its currency, in that it does not necessarily appear to be trying to gain an unfair advantage in international trade even if its place on the Monitoring List might suggest otherwise…
Whereas the bank has been spending its US dollar reserves in an attempt to keep the dong from devaluing too much, the reality is that it has already spent a lot–about US$2.95 billion according to ACB data and this has done little to weaken US dollar demand. With this in mind, an interest rate hike could be on the horizon.
The State Bank looks to be using its forex reserves as a stop gap until the US cuts interest rates which should take some heat out of the US dollar. That said, the earliest analysts are expecting a US rate cut is July but September is looking much more likely, according to Morgan Stanley…
US dollars were being sold for 25,484 Vietnamese dong Sunday at some banks. This is above the 25,450 mark at which the State Bank of Vietnam has intervened by spending foreign currency reserves in the past. On the black market, US dollars were even higher selling for 25,800 a piece.
The Japanese yen and the South Korean won are depreciating against the US dollar and subsequently are also depreciating against the Vietnamese dong, Tuoi Tre has reported. This is on the back of Vietnam trying to keep its currency from devaluing by issuing treasury bills and spending its foreign currency
Singpore’s United Overseas Bank–or UOB–has said that it expects the dong to appreciate between now and the end of the year, The Investor is reporting. This is reflected in UOB’s Quarterly Global Outlook 2Q24 which suggests that a recovery in China will likely strengthen the local currency as well as
The day that Russia invaded Ukraine, on February 24, 2022, the Vietnamese dong was trading at 22,843 dong to one US dollar–it had barely moved since the start of the year. This was in line with much of the past decade in which the local currency had only depreciated marginally,
The Bank of America is expecting the Vietnamese dong to slide by another 1 percent by the end of the year, CNBC is reporting. According to the publication, the BofA made the assessment based on “Vietnam’s political instability following the second presidential resignation in two years as well as difficulty
On Wednesday the State Bank of Vietnam both bought VND 5,671.97 worth of treasuries from five local banks and sold another VND 5,500 billion to five Vietnamese banks. It’s not clear what the thinking is behind this but as far as keeping the exchange rate where it is, these two
Banks were selling US dollars for upwards of 25,000 Vietnamese dong a piece on Thursday, the most a single US dollar has been able to buy ever, according to VN Express. In response, the Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), Dao Minh Tu, has said that the
A 1 percent increase in the value of the US dollar could equate to a US$12.1 million annual loss for Vietnam ‘s national carrier, according to Dang Ngoc Hoa, chairman of Vietnam Airlines, and reported by VN Express. The chairman of PetroVietnam, Le Manh Hung, is also advocating for keeping
The State Bank of Vietnam issued VND 14.999 trillion or US$609 million yesterday in a renewed attempt to halt the devaluation of the local currency, The Investor is reporting. Key takeaways: Overnight loans account for 90 percent of transactions and were attracting an interest rate of 1.17 percent on March
Penned by Nguyen Huu Huan, an economist at the Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics, this piece in The Investor makes several points about US dollar and gold prices in Vietnam. These include: Gold fever is being driven by a lack of other investment options; The rising price of
On the black market in Vietnam the US dollar is fetching up to 25,600 Vietnamese dong, the highest price it has ever pulled, according to Tuoi Tre. Conversely, the State Bank of Vietnam’s (SBV) floating peg is currently sitting at 24,012 with official channels permitted to buy the dong for
US dollars were selling for 24,970 Vietnamese dong on the black market this morning, Zing News is reporting, getting closer to last October’s high of 25,280. Official rates are also getting close to their 2023 high with the official exchange rate set by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) this
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