Vietnam’s economy has been growing rapidly for the better part of three decades. This section broadly tracks news media coverage of Vietnam’s economic development including targets, forecasts, imports and exports, and foreign investment.

Vietnam market-economy review outcome postponed to August

the-shiv July 25, 2024

Of note, Vietnam’s efforts to be redesignated a market economy for trade remedies purposes has been met with quite a bit of resistance in the United States. Its case for redesignation is also pretty shaky in a few areas, currency convertibility and government, for example. As such it’s not really clear which way the DOC might fall…

Vietnam targeting GDP CAGR of 10.18 percent to 2030

the-shiv July 25, 2024

Vietnam’s GDP is currently US$4,620 according to IMF data which would mean Vietnam’s GDP would need to grow at a compounded annual growth rate–a CAGR–of 10.18 percent. For comparison, in the last five years Vietnam’s GDP has grown on a CAGR of just 6.08 percent…

Vietnamese to consume additional 2.56 million litres of soft drink by 2033

the-shiv July 20, 2024

Of note, Vietnam is currently debating adding soft drinks to the list of items subject to the Special Consumption Tax. In the most recent version of a revised SCT, the Ministry of Finance has included a ten percent tax on drinks with 5 grams or more of sugar per 100 millilitres. This legislation, however, is still in its draft stage…

World Bank maintains 5.5 percent GDP growth forecast for Vietnam

the-shiv July 17, 2024

This is broadly inline with projections from the IMF in which it forecast 5.8 percent growth back in April and a report from Vietnam’s Institute for Economic and Policy Research which found that Vietnam is unlikely to reach its GDP growth target of 6.5 percent by the end of the year. The institute’s Vietnam Annual Economic Report 2024 instead found that GDP growth is likely to come in around 5.85 percent…

Business confidence in Vietnam falls in second quarter: EuroCham

the-shiv July 15, 2024

The European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam’s latest Business Confidence Index survey, has recorded a fall in business confidence of 1.5 points. The results reflect the responses of 212 survey respondents out of EuroCham’s 1,400 members…

Vietnam imports up 17.3 percent January to June [data set]

the-shiv July 11, 2024

Vietnam’s imports hit US$30.5 billion in June bringing the country’s total imports for the year to US$178.9 billion, an increase over 2023 of 17.3 percent. This growth has been buoyed by double-digit increases in imports of coal, ores and other minerals products, and iron and steel…

Vietnam exports up 14.9 percent January to June [data set]

the-shiv July 11, 2024

Vietnam’s exports hit US$33.7 billion in June bringing the country’s total exports for the year to US$190.7 billion, an increase over 2023 of 14.9 percent. This growth was buoyed by double-digit increases in exports of computers, phones, and garments and textiles…

Vietnam paper plates unfairly subsidised 237.65 percent: US Department of Commerce

the-shiv July 8, 2024

Five of the six firms investigated were found to be subsidised to the tune of 237.65 percent. Notably, four of these firms failed to respond to the DOC’s request for information at all, and one failed to provide all of the information requested. The sixth, Go-Pak Paper Products Vietnam, the only company to sufficiently engage with the DOC, was found to be subsidised by just 5.48 percent…

Vietnam CPI Tracker: 4.34 percent in June [data set]

the-shiv July 5, 2024

Inflation has been relatively low in Vietnam compared to other parts of the world but this is largely due to government price controls. These lower prices, however, have come at a cost. Input prices, particularly in input dependent industries have risen, however, businesses in many industries have been unable to raise their pricing to compensate. As a result, many have seen their profit margins squeezed while others have had to run at a loss…

‘Limited investment support’ in Vietnam sees big name FDI go elsewhere: MPI

the-shiv July 4, 2024

This stems from the introduction of the Global Minimum Tax which has seen corporate tax incentives significantly diminished for firms operating in Vietnam. An alternative ‘investment support fund’ has been proposed, however, this is yet to be legislated. A December 2023 draft included financial support for training and reimbursements for research and development conducted in Vietnam…

Vietnam’s Economy in the First Half of 2024: Unpacked

the-shiv July 3, 2024

Six months into 2024, just days ago, Vietnam’s General Office of Statistics released GDP data that showed a marked improvement for the local economy compared to 2023. Specifically, it found that GDP growth for Vietnam for the second quarter of this year had hit a phenomenal 6.83 percent, bringing the average growth rate for the year so far to 6.42 percent. This growth, however, has not been felt equally and in this light this article breaks down the finer nuances of Vietnam’s GDP growth in the first half of 2024.

Vietnam statistics office finds second quarter GDP growth at 6.93 percent

the-shiv June 30, 2024

The GSO estimates that the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector grew by 3.34 percent, the industrial and construction sector grew by 8.29 percent, and the service sector grew by 7.06 percent. This is broadly reflected in Vietnam’s top ten individual-item exports in the first five months of this year which registered an average growth rate of 14.9 percent compared to 2023…

Vietnam Value Added Tax cut extended to end of the year

the-shiv June 30, 2024

The VAT is normally 10 percent, however, it was reduced during COVID as an economic stimulus measure to 8 percent. But Vietnam’s economic recovery was in large part thwarted, much like in many other countries, by the Ukraine War and the rising fuel prices that came with it. This has led to extensions of the aforementioned VAT cut for the better part of the last four years…

IMF wraps up Vietnam mission, key takeaways from team lead statement

the-shiv June 27, 2024

The International Monetary Fund has wrapped up a four day consultation in Vietnam led by the intergovernmental body’s Paulo Medas. The consultation included meeting with the State Bank, Prime Minister, Ministry of Finance and a handful of other government agencies. A statement from Medas at the conclusion of the consultation has several noteworthy points, including…

Perks of CPTPP one step closer for UK with Vietnam ratification

the-shiv June 26, 2024

Notably, Vietnam and the UK already have the UK Vietnam Free Trade Agreement which is almost identical to the European Vietnam Free Trade Agreement. In this light, the CPTPP will not make a huge difference to bilateral trade between the two countries. That said, there will be a few additional advantages including…

Isotopic testing for cotton products entering US possible problem for Vietnam

the-shiv June 24, 2024

Of note, between October of last year and May of this year, US Customs stopped 950 shipments entering the US from Vietnam under the UFLPA valued at US$520 million. Of those 528 were released, 207 are still pending an outcome, and 215 were denied entry. Those denied shipments were worth a collective US$20.9 million with 46 shipments of apparel, footwear, and textiles among them valued at US$496,485…

S&P global maintains Vietnam BB+ long term, B short term ratings

the-shiv June 23, 2024

S&P Global has maintained its ratings for Vietnam but notes there are some risks. Vietnam’s banking sector on its Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment matrix is rated 9. This is on a scale of one to 10 on which 1 represents the lowest risk and 10 represents the highest. This assessment “incorporates regulatory weaknesses, in addition to weak transparency and disclosure standards,” according to the report.

Vietnam think-tank finds 5.85 percent GDP growth more likely that 6.5 percent target

the-shiv June 22, 2024

This is in line with the growth outlooks of Maybank Securities and the International Monetary Fund which both forecast GDP growth of 5.8 percent back in April. The Asian Development Bank, however, has been slightly more optimistic forecasting 6 percent and Singapore’s United Overseas Bank has been even more so, forecasting 6.4 percent growth for Vietnam this year…

Vietnam floats corporate income tax cuts for small-micro businesses

the-shiv June 22, 2024

Of note, the draft amendments to the Law on Corporate Income Tax do not seem to make a distinction between local and foreign firms. That being the case, foreign-owned small businesses–cafes, bars, gyms, and what not–could also benefit from these changes if passed. That said, there does not seem to be a timeline for a decision as to whether these changes will be approved and go ahead…

Vietnam credit growth on the rise but still well below target

the-shiv June 20, 2024

Of note, at the end of June last year, credit growth was sitting at about 4.73 percent. It also failed to climb much higher for most of the rest of the year until November when banks started to push consumer credit through aggressive marketing campaigns–credit growth jumped, as a result, from 7.41 percent at the end of October to 13.5 percent by the end of the year…