This week’s Vietnam news roundup covers farm export risks from US tariffs, a weaker dong, surging corporate bonds, Q2 GDP growth, power sources in June, dairy and meat non-tariff barriers, dumping tariffs on Chinese steel, and more….

In case you missed it…

Vietnam’s H1:2025 GDP Growth: Key Drivers, Rising Risks

Vietnam’s first-half GDP growth surged to 7.52 percent in 2025, marking its strongest start since 2011, according to the National Statistics Office. It has, however, been driven largely by manufacturing and domestic consumption, and has been underpinned by significant amounts of private credit, a potentially risky proposition moving forward. Read More »

Vietnam’s Economy in June: Unpacked

Last Friday, the National Statistics Office released its June update showing rising inflation, a weakening dong, and trade uncertainty ahead of the July 9 Trump tariff deadline. This article breaks down the key data and policy trends that shaped Vietnam’s economy in June 2025. Read More »

💡Do you have insights others don’t?→Send us a tip 👉

Agriculture news

Agriculture ministry expecting US$6.2 billion loss on 20 percent US tariff

Export turnover in the second half of 2025 is projected to fall by 20 percent, equal to a loss of US$6.2–6.5 billion, with overall growth slowing to around 3.85 percent if a 20 percent US tariff is imposed, according to Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Environment.

The Ministry went on to say that in a worst-case scenario, with a 46 percent tariff, second-half exports could drop by as much as US$12.3 billion, Tuoi Tre has reported→view source.

advertise with the-shiv

Banking and finance news

Corporate bond market sees US$3.35 billion issued in June

Vietnam’s corporate bond market saw a surge in activity in June 2025, with 65 private placements totalling VND 86,953 billion or US$3.35 billion, up 26 percent from May, according to a report from the Vietnam Bond Market Association→view source.

Vietnam dong continues to fall against greenback

The dong weakened further against the greenback this week, with the central exchange rate reaching a new low of VND 25,131 to the dollar.

This puts the currency down 3.24 percent since the start of the year..

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), however, continued to pump money into the economy.

There were US$4.2 billion worth of reverse repos outstanding as of close of business July 10. This was up slightly from US$4.19 billion at the same time last week.

The SBV has also continued to issue treasury bills, with US$1.08 billion now outstanding.

🎯 Reach business leaders active across ASEAN: Partner with the-shiv 👉

Central bank flags major exchange rate uncertainties ahead

Vietnam faces significant uncertainties over exchange rates and monetary policy in the coming months, Pham Chi Quang, director of the State Bank of Vietnam’s monetary policy department, told a press conference Tuesday, The Investor has reported→view source.

Quang explained that Vietnam’s low VND interest rate policy to support growth has widened the VND-USD rate gap, pushing the VND down even as the USD weakens globally.

He also says foreign investors have been net sellers since 2024, adding exchange rate pressure despite trade surpluses and warned that new US reciprocal tariffs on 14 countries could disrupt FDI flows and drive capital into USD safe havens, worsening volatility.

Economy news

GDP growth reaches 7.96 percent in Q2 2025

Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by an estimated 7.96 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, marking the second-highest Q2 growth since 2020, according to the National Statistics Office–view source.

Key details:

Agriculture, forestry and fishery grew by 3.89 percent in Q2,
Industry and construction rose 8.97 percent, and
The services sector expanded 8.46 percent.

advertise with the-shiv

CPI rises 0.48 percent month-on-month in June, driven by housing and fuel

Vietnam’s consumer price index (CPI) in June 2025 rose 0.48 percent from May, largely driven by higher housing material costs and fuel prices, according to the National Statistics Office→view source.

Compared to December 2024, CPI was up 2.02 percent, and was up 3.57 percent year-on-year.

Average CPI for the second quarter climbed 3.31 percent year-on-year, with core inflation for the first half of 2025 at 3.16 percent.

Electricity news

Coal continues to dominate Vietnam power supply

Vietnam’s total power output in the first half of 2025 reached 155.79 billion kWh, with a record daily output of 1.04 billion kWh and peak capacity of 51,672 MW, according to a press release from state power provider Vietnam Electricity (EVN)→view source.

Generation breakdown for the first half of 2025:

Hydropower: 36.5 billion kWh, accounting for 23.4 percent.
Coal-fired thermal: 84.6 billion kWh, accounting for 54.3 percent.
Gas turbines: 10.27 billion kWh, accounting for 6.6 percent.
Renewable energy: 20.98 billion kWh, accounting for 13.5 percent (including solar at 13.63 billion kWh and wind at 6.71 billion kWh).
Imported electricity: 3.24 billion kWh, accounting for 2.1 percent.

advertise with the-shiv

Food and beverage news

Non-trade barriers key challenge in dairy in Vietnam, ASEAN: Fonterra says

Persistent non-trade barriers (NTBs) in ASEAN markets, including Vietnam, present significant operational challenges for dairy firms like Fonterra, its general manager of Trade Strategy, Justine Aroll, has said corporate commentary published by the Vietnam Investment Review →view source.

Major NTBs include duplicative administrative procedures, non-transparent import licensing, inconsistent rule enforcement, and complex labelling requirements.

US meat exporters urge Vietnam non-tariff barrier cuts as part of Trump trade deal

The US Meat Export Federation (USMEF) is pushing for full tariff elimination and the removal of restrictive non-tariff barriers on meat imports in Vietnam as part of any trade deal agreed between Vietnam and the US, according to a statement published by the National Hog Farmer→view source.

Non-tariff barriers, according to USMEF, include strict facility registration rules, extra paperwork demands, and a zero-tolerance salmonella standard.

Incidentally, US pork producers were among the biggest losers when the US withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement, which allowed key competitors like Australia and Canada to benefit from reduced pork import tariffs just as African Swine Fever took hold in Vietnam.

advertise with the-shiv

Gambling news

Northern Vietnam province opens bidding for US$2 billion tourism-casino project

Quang Ninh province in northern Vietnam is inviting investors to develop a VND 51.5 trillion (US$2 billion) tourism and casino complex in the Van Don Economic Zone, The Investor has reported→view source.

The project is set to cover over 244 hectares, including 62 hectares of protected natural forest (to remain untouched) and 182 hectares for development.

Planned facilities include a casino, luxury hotels, resorts, villas, and other high-end tourism amenities.

Labour news

Survey finds half of Vietnam worker wages barely enough to make ends meet

A new survey highlighting widespread financial hardship among Vietnamese workers has intensified calls for a 6–7 percent minimum wage increase in 2026.

Experts and labour representatives have warned that current incomes fall far short of basic living needs, Kinh Te Do Thi has reported→view source.

Conducted by the Vietnam General Confederation of Labour in March–April 2025 among nearly 3,000 workers, the survey showed 54.9 percent of workers said their income just covered basic expenses, while 26.3 percent had to live frugally, and 7.9 percent lacked enough to live on, needing extra jobs.

advertise with the-shiv

Stock market news

Foreign traders net-buy US$301.67 million of HoSE stocks

Over the last five trading sessions to the close of business on July 10, foreign investors net-bought US$301.67 million worth of HCMC Stock Exchange (HoSE) stocks.

This brings the total foreign trading net-purchases in July so far to US$321.6 million.

Over the same period, a collection of the biggest foreign ETFs trading on the HoSE tracked by Fiintrade, as of close of business July 9, net sold US$11.08 million worth of stocks→view source.

For the year, they have collectively net-withdraw US$224.5 million, with the balance of all foreign trading activity hovering at negative US$1.96 billion since January 1.

Foreign trader activity, last five trading days

	Buy		Sell		Change
Date	VND	US$	VND	US$	VND	US$
3/7	4,201	$160.87	1,923	$73.64	2,278	$87.23
4/7	3,634	$139.16	1,853	$70.96	1,781	$68.20
7/7	3,989	$152.75	2,761	$105.73	1,228	$47.02
8/7	4,889	$187.21	3,376	$129.28	1,513	$57.94
9/7	4,393	$168.22	3,315	$126.94	1,078	$41.28
Total	21,106	$808.21	13,228	$506.54	7,878	$301.67

VND = billions; US$ = millions; source: HSX

Trade news

Exports up 14.4 percent in first half of 2025, trade surplus narrows

Vietnam’s export turnover reached US$219.83 billion in the first six months of 2025, an increase of 14.4 percent year-on-year, according to the National Statistics Office→view source.

In June alone, exports totalled US$39.49 billion, down slightly by 0.3 percent from May but up 16.3 percent year-on-year.

The second quarter recorded US$116.93 billion in exports, up 18 percent from the same period last year and 13.6 percent from Q1.

advertise with the-shiv

Vietnam imposes anti-dumping tax on Chinese hot-rolled steel from July

Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade has officially imposed anti-dumping taxes of 23.1 to 27.83 percent on certain hot-rolled steel products originating from China, effective from 6 July and set to last for five years, VN Express has reported→view source.

This decision strengthens Vietnam’s domestic steel industry against cheap imports, reinforces trade defence mechanisms, and aligns with broader efforts to support strategic industries amid rising regional competition.

Top US economic adviser praises ‘extremely one-sided’ US-Vietnam trade deal

A trade deal with Vietnam announced last week has been dubbed “fantastic” and “extremely one-sided,” by top White House economic adviser Stephen Miran, in an ABC News interview last Sunday→view source.

He noted that it delivers major benefits to US exporters while imposing significant tariffs on Vietnamese goods.

There has been a lot of speculation since a deal was announced between Vietnam and the US around whether or not it is a good outcome for Vietnam.

These comments from Miran would suggest, at least in the view of the Trump administration, it is not.

advertise with the-shiv

New US tariff deal sees importers question Vietnam as alternative sourcing option

The new US-Vietnam trade deal is prompting importers to reconsider Vietnam’s role as a key alternative to China, as fresh tariffs and potential transhipment penalties introduce major cost and compliance risks, Reuters has reported→view source.

“With this new change and with the potential for this transhipment tariff, I think it’s going to cause a lot of importers to really question, is Vietnam really a good other option?” The publication quotes Lila Landis, a customs compliance consultant, as saying.

Concerns raised in Philippines as Vietnam’s US tariff deal puts exports at a disadvantage

The Philippines’ exports are unlikely to stay competitive if the US reinstates a 17 percent tariff, especially after Vietnam secured a favourable 20 percent rate under a new deal with Washington, according to the Foreign Buyers Association of the Philippines (FOBAP) →view source.

FOBAP President Robert M. Young said Vietnam already benefits from lower wages and better infrastructure, resulting in a 10-15 percent lower free-on-board price compared to the Philippines.

He said the Philippines would struggle to compete in a “price war” and called for urgent reforms to keep the country attractive to foreign buyers

This highlights how the Trump tariffs aren’t just a bilateral issue between the US and individual countries like Vietnam or the Philippines, but that they also have regional implications.

By giving Vietnam a relatively favourable deal (20 percent rather than 46 percent), the US has effectively tilted the playing field in Vietnam’s favour.

The Philippines now faces pressure to either secure similar tariff concessions, rapidly cut production costs, or find ways to strengthen its value proposition to buyers.

advertise with the-shiv