The first case of African Swine Fever, or ASF as it is more commonly known, was diagnosed in Vietnam in February 2019. Patient zero was a pig in Hung Yen province northwest of Hanoi from where it spread rapidly–in just seven months cases had been detected in all 63 provinces in Vietnam.
This was a huge blow to Vietnam’s pig farmers, forced to cull their pigs to bring the spread under control. As a result, Vietnam’s total herd size fell from 28.1 million pigs in 2018 to just 24.9 million one year later which correlated to a fall in pig meat output of 13.8 percent.
This, however, fortuitously for some, happened to coincide with the first year of the implementation of the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership, or the CPTPP. Kicking-in in Vietnam in January of 2019, the agreement had seen tariffs on frozen pork fall from 15 percent to 13.1 percent on their way to 11.2 percent in 2020, for its member states.
That said, this advantage was only to last a little over a year or so. With pork supplies continuing to dwindle, in July of 2020, Vietnam decided to temporarily reduce its 15 percent import tariff on frozen pork to 10 percent for all World Trade Organisation members.
But a reduction of pork import barriers didn’t stop there–in August of 2020 the European Union Vietnam Free Trade Agreement kicked in and this saw pork tariffs from the EU start to come down too.
As a result, foreign pork began to flood into the country with imports increasing from 67,000 tons in 2019 to 148,000 tons in 2020, according to data from the Vietnam Animal Husbandry Association.
Then, in 2021, even though Vietnam’s temporary discount on pork tariffs for WTO members came to an end, pork imports continued to climb further reaching just over 291,000 tons for the year.
This, however, was to be a peak with imports set to fall in 2022 in large part due to the changing circumstances for Vietnam’s pig farmers. Specifically, culling efforts had seen outbreaks of ASF vastly reduced and herd numbers were beginning to return to normal.
This was reflected in a fall in pork imports in 2022 to just 183,000 tons, though they did recover slightly in 2023 to settle at 237,000 tons.
That said, pork imports may be set to jump again with reports last month that 632 outbreaks of ASF had been reported in 44 provinces with 40,500 pigs culled already this year.
A reality reflected in Vietnam’s pork imports already–Even in the absence of tariff cuts, US pork exports to Vietnam still managed to double in the first five months of 2024 over 2023, according to US Meat Export Federation data.
Furthermore, several UK pork producers were given the okay by the Vietnamese authorities back in March to start exporting pork to Vietnam. These UK producers are also set to benefit from reduced tariffs as a member of both the UKVFTA and the CPTPP.
But whereas these increased pork imports are welcome news for Vietnam’s pork-loving consumers, the local meat industry has recognised that increasing meat imports more broadly pose a significant threat to the local meat producers and is starting to fight back.
The Vietnam Livestock Association and the Animal Feed, Large Livestock and Poultry Breeding associations, for example, made a submission to the government earlier this year requesting additional technical barriers on imported meats. In it, they argued that it’s much easier to import meat into Vietnam than it is to export meat to more developed markets because standards in Vietnam are lower.
That said, these restrictions would only likely impede imports from markets at a comparable level of development to Vietnam. Developed market pork producers, like Australia, Canada, and the USA, generally already meet the highest international standards.
Vietnam has also started inoculating pigs against ASF with a homegrown vaccine although its quality has been questioned with the World Organisation for Animal Health saying more testing is needed.
That said, with the lifespan of a pig headed to the slaughterhouse only around half a year and tens of millions of pigs in Vietnam the practical application of a vaccine looks to be challenging. As it stands, it’s been estimated that just 1 percent of pigs have been vaccinated so far.
But even if efforts to reduce the spread of ASF with vaccinations and to tackle meat imports with higher standards are successful, it’s not clear that small-hold farmers that have switched production will be willing to take the risk of returning to producing pork. What’s more, once consumers get a taste for cheap imported pork—which will get cheaper with tariffs set to reach zero under the CPTPP and EVFTA by 2027–they may not want to go back.
With all of this in mind, it seems that greater pork imports may be here to stay and may even increase further moving forward, particularly if ASF outbreaks continue to occur. In this context, foreign pork producers may find that Vietnam is well-primed to accept more of their product.
That said, the situation for the Vietnam pork market is developing rapidly and as with most emerging markets the situation can turn on a dime. With this in mind, foreign pork producers should make sure to keep up with the latest developments in Vietnam’s meat market by subscribing to the-shiv.