July 16, 2025
A different perspective on Vietnam’s economy and doing business in Vietnam. Make sure to subscribe.
insights & analysis
Tag: features
The Features category includes in-depth analyses, expert opinions, and long-form reports on key industries, policies, and market developments. It explores trends, challenges, and opportunities across various sectors, providing comprehensive insights for professionals, businesses, and policymakers.
How Will Trump’s Tariffs Impact Vietnam’s FDI Flows?
Mark Barnes July 16, 2025 8:52 am
In the new trade paradigm coming out of the US, questions have been raised about Vietnam’s FDI-powered growth and whether it can be sustained. With this in mind, this article looks at how tariffs impact FDI flows and what to expect moving forward.
Big Cars, Tiny Streets: Will Trump’s Tariff Deal Accelerate US SUV Sales in Vietnam?
Mark Barnes July 14, 2025 9:28 am
Donald Trump recently speculated that Vietnam cutting import tariffs would be a big win for American SUV makers. Whereas the contrast between Vietnam’s narrow streets and large US vehicles has raised eyebrows, there is precedent for such a market, and the idea is not as far-fetched as it at first seems.
Vietnam’s H1:2025 GDP Growth: Key Drivers, Rising Risks
Mark Barnes July 8, 2025 9:46 am
Vietnam’s first-half GDP growth surged to 7.52 percent in 2025, marking its strongest start since 2011, according to the National Statistics Office. While driven largely by manufacturing and robust domestic consumption, the expansion is heavily underpinned by private credit and faces rising external risks. Rapid credit growth and looming US tariffs on Vietnamese exports pose significant challenges to sustaining this momentum in the second half of the year.
Vietnam’s Economy in June: Unpacked
Mark Barnes July 7, 2025 2:58 pm
Last Friday, the National Statistics Office released its June update showing rising inflation, a weakening dong, and trade uncertainty ahead of the July 9 Trump tariff deadline. This article breaks down the key data and policy trends shaping Vietnam’s economy.
Trump’s Vietnam Trade Deal Announcement: Sectors to Watch
Mark Barnes July 3, 2025 10:06 am
Yesterday, in a post on Truth Social, US President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam that would impose a 40 percent tariff on goods transhipped through Vietnam and a 20 percent tariff on all other Vietnamese imports. This article looks at which sectors are most at risk of that higher 40 percent rate.
What Vietnam’s New Law on Digital Technology Actually Means for Crypto Traders
Mark Barnes July 2, 2025 8:07 am
Vietnam’s new Law on Digital Technology has been heralded as landmark legislation in that it officially recognises cryptocurrencies in law, but it’s more foundational than game-changing. It’s what is built on top of it that will really make a difference, though what that might be, and how effective it might be, is still not entirely clear.
Explainer: What’s Driving Vietnam’s Stock Market Rally?
Mark Barnes June 26, 2025 8:35 am
Despite rising nearly 100 points this year, Vietnam’s VN-Index rally is far from broad-based. A closer look reveals that just four stocks — all tied to the Vingroup ecosystem — account for nearly 90 percent of gains. In a challenging global economic environment, this concentration raises questions about the sustainability of the rally and highlights the need for careful scrutiny before jumping in.
How Low Can the Vietnamese Dong Go? Why it’s Sliding & What Might Happen Next
Mark Barnes June 24, 2025 8:10 am
Vietnam’s dong has weakened 2.83 percent this year, diverging from regional peers, as State Bank interventions have the currency overvalued and FX reserves depleted. With this in mind, this article looks at how it’s reached this point, what is happening now, and where it might be headed next.
Vietnam’s BRICS Partnership: Risks & Benefits
Mark Barnes June 18, 2025 9:20 am
Vietnam’s new BRICS partnership offers potential access to new financing and export markets but also carries risks. That said, it is only a small step forward and looks more like a pragmatic hedge than a major strategic shift.
The End of Vietnam’s Two-Child Policy: When Ideology Meets Economics
Mark Barnes June 12, 2025 8:11 am
Vietnam may have scrapped its long-standing two-child policy last week, but the ideology behind it may be harder to shift. Coming just days after General Secretary To Lam urged the nation to “practice thrift and fight wastefulness,” the move signals less of a break from the past than a concession to present economic realities: a shrinking workforce, a strained social security system, and a manufacturing model under pressure.
Vietnam’s Economy in May: Unpacked
Mark Barnes June 9, 2025 8:14 am
Last Friday, the National Statistics Office (NSO) released its May economic update. For the most part, the data was on trend, however, it comes amidst broad trade uncertainty and a generally hazy global economic picture. Against this backdrop, this article breaks down the key data points and policy factors that shaped Vietnam’s economic landscape in May.
Could A Trump Tower Really Break Ground in Vietnam Next Year?
Mark Barnes June 4, 2025 10:22 am
Last week, it was widely reported that work could start on a Trump Tower in Ho Chi Minh City as soon as next year. However, Vietnam’s real estate sector is not flush with cash, and this could make it challenging to get this project off the ground.
What The Economist Episode Says About Public Debate in Vietnam
Mark Barnes June 2, 2025 9:53 am
The edition of The Economist featuring General Secretary To Lam — literally pictured with stars in his eyes — offered more than just sharp analysis of Vietnam’s economic trajectory. It also, indirectly, proffered valuable insights into how Vietnam’s public space for debate operates.
Trans shipping: To What Extent is Vietnam China’s backdoor to the U.S.?
Mark Barnes May 28, 2025 9:20 am
Vietnam’s role as a transshipment hub for Chinese goods has become a key point of contention between the US and Vietnam. While there seems to be little question that this practice is taking place, there does seem to be some debate as to what extent. With this in mind, this article looks at a few key data points worth considering.
Vietnam Shoots the (Telegram) Messenger: Implications & Impacts
Mark Barnes May 26, 2025 8:05 am
Telegram is set to be banned in Vietnam because it is allegedly being used for nefarious activities. Foreign firms should see this as a reminder of the often arbitrary and unpredictable nature of Vietnam’s digital regulatory environment.
Vietnam’s US Tariff Threat Prompted Counterfeit Crackdown: Unpacked
Mark Barnes May 21, 2025 8:26 am
Counterfeit goods have been highlighted as one non-tariff barrier that led to the recently announced US tariffs on Vietnamese goods. Vietnam is now responding to try to bring down those tariffs by launching a crackdown on counterfeits. So, how prevalent is the counterfeit goods trade in Vietnam? Can it be stopped? And if it can, why hasn’t it been already?
The “Existential” Tariff Threat to US Footwear Brands & What That Means for Vietnam
Mark Barnes May 14, 2025 2:49 pm
The Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America has warned that the “reciprocal” tariffs announced last month pose an existential threat to American footwear businesses. This article explores how that threat could play out in Vietnam.
Can LNG really save Vietnam-US trade?
Mark Barnes May 7, 2025 9:07 am
There has been a lot said about Vietnam buying more LNG in order to reduce its trade surplus with the United States. There has even been some suggestion that Vietnam could buy as much as US$35 billion worth a year and store it offshore. But is buying more LNG really a realistic option?
Marx to the Market: A Brief History of Vietnam’s Post-Reunification Economic Development
Mark Barnes April 30, 2025 12:32 pm
Fifty years ago this month, the citizens of Ho Chi Minh City were watching the skies as US military helicopters evacuated the last of their personnel. Conversely, this month, in 2025, the citizens of Ho Chi Minh City looking skyward are unlikely to see US helicopters and instead more likely to see the VN Pay logo made up of tens of hundreds of drones. An advertisement for a banking and finance app to be sure, this is also largely emblematic of just how far Vietnam’s economic ideology has shifted in the last 50 years.
Vietnam’s Revised Power Development Plan 8: A Missed Opportunity
Mark Barnes April 22, 2025 5:59 pm
Last week, the Government of Vietnam issued a Decision significantly revising the Power Development Plan 8 (PDP8). However, whereas this could have been an opportunity to redesign the PDP8 to align more closely with on-the-ground realities, this opportunity looks to have been missed.
Vietnam Labour Market Snapshot
Q2 2025
Q2 2025
knowledge hub
January 18, 2025
January 14, 2024
March 19, 2024