July 16, 2025
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insights & analysis
Author: Mark Barnes
Mark Barnes is a Vietnam based freelance business journalist. He has a Bachelors Degree in Journalism from RMIT and a Masters of International Relations from the University of Melbourne. He writes broadly about the business environment in Vietnam and is available to write feature articles, market research and business intelligence reports, as well as consult on the intricacies of doing business in Vietnam.
Vietnam News Roundup: July 11 to July 17
Mark Barnes July 18, 2025
This week’s Vietnam news roundup covers ASF concealment by pig farmers, motorbike sales trends, airline reform calls, credit red flags, dong weakness, questions around Trump’s tariff deal and more.
How Will Trump’s Tariffs Impact Vietnam’s FDI Flows?
Mark Barnes July 16, 2025
In the new trade paradigm coming out of the US, questions have been raised about Vietnam’s FDI-powered growth and whether it can be sustained. With this in mind, this article looks at how tariffs impact FDI flows and what to expect moving forward.
Big Cars, Tiny Streets: Will Trump’s Tariff Deal Accelerate US SUV Sales in Vietnam?
Mark Barnes July 14, 2025
Donald Trump recently speculated that Vietnam cutting import tariffs would be a big win for American SUV makers. Whereas the contrast between Vietnam’s narrow streets and large US vehicles has raised eyebrows, there is precedent for such a market, and the idea is not as far-fetched as it at first seems.
Vietnam News Roundup: July 3 to July 10
Mark Barnes July 11, 2025
This week’s Vietnam news roundup covers farm export risks from US tariffs, a weaker dong, surging corporate bonds, Q2 GDP growth, power sources in June, dairy and meat non-tariff barriers, dumping tariffs on Chinese steel, and more….
Vietnam’s H1:2025 GDP Growth: Key Drivers, Rising Risks
Mark Barnes July 8, 2025
Vietnam’s first-half GDP growth surged to 7.52 percent in 2025, marking its strongest start since 2011, according to the National Statistics Office. While driven largely by manufacturing and robust domestic consumption, the expansion is heavily underpinned by private credit and faces rising external risks. Rapid credit growth and looming US tariffs on Vietnamese exports pose significant challenges to sustaining this momentum in the second half of the year.
Vietnam’s Economy in June: Unpacked
Mark Barnes July 7, 2025
Last Friday, the National Statistics Office released its June update showing rising inflation, a weakening dong, and trade uncertainty ahead of the July 9 Trump tariff deadline. This article breaks down the key data and policy trends shaping Vietnam’s economy.
Vietnam News Roundup: June 27 to July 3
Mark Barnes July 4, 2025
This week’s Vietnam news roundup covers Trump’s Vietnam tariff deal, crypto regulation changes, Skoda’s local assembly, strong credit growth, dong weakness, The Venti’s debut, proposed wage hikes, new insurance rules, PMI decline, and major moves in real estate and stocks.
Trump’s Vietnam Trade Deal Announcement: Sectors to Watch
Mark Barnes July 3, 2025
Yesterday, in a post on Truth Social, US President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam that would impose a 40 percent tariff on goods transhipped through Vietnam and a 20 percent tariff on all other Vietnamese imports. This article looks at which sectors are most at risk of that higher 40 percent rate.
What Vietnam’s New Law on Digital Technology Actually Means for Crypto Traders
Mark Barnes July 2, 2025
Vietnam’s new Law on Digital Technology has been heralded as landmark legislation in that it officially recognises cryptocurrencies in law, but it’s more foundational than game-changing. It’s what is built on top of it that will really make a difference, though what that might be, and how effective it might be, is still not entirely clear.
Vietnam News Roundup: June 20 to June 26
Mark Barnes June 27, 2025
This week’s Vietnam news roundup covers dong depreciation, IMF and Fitch reform calls, bond market risks, F&B revenue decline, US tariff responses, foreign investor trading, CRC’s retail expansion, shifts in the tourism and pharma sectors, and more…
Explainer: What’s Driving Vietnam’s Stock Market Rally?
Mark Barnes June 26, 2025
Despite rising nearly 100 points this year, Vietnam’s VN-Index rally is far from broad-based. A closer look reveals that just four stocks — all tied to the Vingroup ecosystem — account for nearly 90 percent of gains. In a challenging global economic environment, this concentration raises questions about the sustainability of the rally and highlights the need for careful scrutiny before jumping in.
How Low Can the Vietnamese Dong Go? Why it’s Sliding & What Might Happen Next
Mark Barnes June 24, 2025
Vietnam’s dong has weakened 2.83 percent this year, diverging from regional peers, as State Bank interventions have the currency overvalued and FX reserves depleted. With this in mind, this article looks at how it’s reached this point, what is happening now, and where it might be headed next.
Vietnam News Roundup: June 13 to June 19
Mark Barnes June 20, 2025
This week’s Vietnam news roundup covers Vietnam’s new BRICS partnership, updates to its emissions trading scheme, a major LNG power project, moves to tax soft drinks and tighten e-commerce tax collection, as well as corporate bond issuances, foreign stock trading activity, key outcomes from the crackdown on counterfeit goods, and more…
Vietnam’s BRICS Partnership: Risks & Benefits
Mark Barnes June 18, 2025
Vietnam’s new BRICS partnership offers potential access to new financing and export markets but also carries risks. That said, it is only a small step forward and looks more like a pragmatic hedge than a major strategic shift.
Vietnam’s Emissions Trading Scheme 2025: What’s New?
Mark Barnes June 16, 2025
Vietnam’s emissions trading scheme ambitions got a boost last week with the government finalising legal requirements to begin quantifying carbon emissions and assigning quotas to key polluters. Here’s how its emissions trading scheme works, who it affects, and why it matters.
Vietnam News Roundup: June 6 to June 12
Mark Barnes June 13, 2025
This week’s Vietnam news roundup explores a US$1.5 billion aviation finance deal, fresh concerns over currency manipulation, APAX’s social insurance debts, possible energy shortages, VinFast’s widening losses, AEON’s finance fallout, carbon market reforms, and more….
The End of Vietnam’s Two-Child Policy: When Ideology Meets Economics
Mark Barnes June 12, 2025
Vietnam may have scrapped its long-standing two-child policy last week, but the ideology behind it may be harder to shift. Coming just days after General Secretary To Lam urged the nation to “practice thrift and fight wastefulness,” the move signals less of a break from the past than a concession to present economic realities: a shrinking workforce, a strained social security system, and a manufacturing model under pressure.
Vietnam’s Economy in May: Unpacked
Mark Barnes June 9, 2025
Last Friday, the National Statistics Office (NSO) released its May economic update. For the most part, the data was on trend, however, it comes amidst broad trade uncertainty and a generally hazy global economic picture. Against this backdrop, this article breaks down the key data points and policy factors that shaped Vietnam’s economic landscape in May.
Vietnam News Roundup: May 30 to June 5
Mark Barnes June 6, 2025
This week’s Vietnam news roundup covers the Trump Tower in Ho Chi Minh City, the dong’s continued slide even, the Saigon Square raid on counterfeit goods, trade tensions with the US, moves to speed up foreign work permits, and more…
Could A Trump Tower Really Break Ground in Vietnam Next Year?
Mark Barnes June 4, 2025
Last week, it was widely reported that work could start on a Trump Tower in Ho Chi Minh City as soon as next year. However, Vietnam’s real estate sector is not flush with cash, and this could make it challenging to get this project off the ground.
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Q2 2025
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