Last week, the President of the United States Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on imports from all over the world. Among them was a 46 percent tariff on imports from Vietnam. This will have broad implications for Vietnam’s economy and the world economy more broadly.

With this in mind, this article looks at what Trump hopes to achieve and the way he intends to achieve it, both of which make it look a lot like these tariffs are here to stay. That being the case, it also looks at the implications for Vietnam and ways it might be able to formulate an impact-mitigating response… Read More »

Agriculture news

Industry group says Trump Tariff impact limited for Vietnam fruit and veg

Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable sector will face minimal disruption from President Donald Trump’s newly announced 46 percent import tariffs, according to Dang Phuc Nguyen, General Secretary of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association. Nguyen has said he believes that the tariffs will not be applied to all sectors of the economy equally (it’s not clear how Nguyen reached this conclusion) with Vietnam’s trade deficit in fruits and vegetables likely to lead to a lower US import tariff, The Investor reported.

Banking and finance news

Vietnam credit growth hits 3.93 percent in Q1 2025

Vietnam’s banking sector added nearly VND 614 trillion (US$23.8 billion) in new credit during the first quarter of 2025, with total credit outstanding reaching VND 16,230 trillion (US$629 billion), according to State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) Governor Nguyen Thi Hong. The quarterly growth rate of 3.93 percent outpaced the same period last year by more than double, The Investor has reported.

The Investor also notes that:

Credit growth in Q1 2025 was 3.93 percent, up from 1.42 percent in Q1 2024.
Credit outstanding as of end-March stood at VND16,230 trillion (US$629 billion).
A significant increase occurred in the final week of March, adding VND 223.3 trillion (US$8.66 billion).

While the SBV has framed the Q1 lending spike as a positive driver of investment, rapid credit expansion in a short period—especially in the final week of March—should raise questions about the sustainability and quality of that growth.

Vietnam dong continues to slide

The State Bank of Vietnam has continued to carry out open market operations. Specifically, there were US$4.55 billion worth of reverse repos outstanding as of the close of business April 10. There were, however, no outstanding treasury bills.

Of note, the dong has continued to depreciate this week. Whereas this time last week it was down by 2.10 percent over the start of the year, as of close of business April 10 it was down by 2.56 percent.

This is, of course, not necessarily a bad thing with a weaker dong supporting smaller enterprises to sell more goods both locally and to overseas buyers.

Economy news

Vietnam’s CPI up 3.22 percent year-on-year in Q1 2025

Vietnam’s consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.22 percent in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year, according to the General Statistics Office. Core inflation for the quarter came in slightly lower at 3.01 percent.

Key data points:

March CPI fell 0.03 percent month-on-month, mainly due to lower rice and fuel prices.
Average CPI for Q1 2025 increased 3.22 percent year-on-year.
Major drivers of CPI growth: medical services (+14.4%), housing & utilities (+5.11%),
Notable price drops: transport (-2.4%), education (-0.61%), post & telecommunications (-0.59%).

Vietnam’s GDP grows 6.93 percent in Q1 2025, highest first-quarter rate since 2020

Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 6.93 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, according to data from the General Statistics Office. While the result fell short of the full-year 8 percent goal, it reflects strong growth amid global uncertainties.

Key figures:

GDP growth (Q1 2025): +6.93 percent year-on-year; highest Q1 growth since 2020;
Sector contributions: Services led with 7.70 percent growth, followed by industry and construction at 7.42 percent, and agriculture at 3.74 percent;
Manufacturing: up 9.28 percent, making it the largest single contributor to growth;
Household demand: Final consumption grew 7.45 percent, alongside strong export growth of 9.71 percent; and
Drag from mining: Output declined 5.76 percent, offsetting gains in other sectors.

Human resources news

Vietnam average income up 9.5 percent year-on-year in Q1 2025

Vietnamese workers saw their average monthly income rise to VND 8.3 million (US$322) in Q1 2025, an increase of 9.5 percent compared to the same period last year. Gains were recorded across all sectors, despite a slight drop in labour force participation and a continued high number of informal workers, according to a press release from Vietnam’s General Office of Statistics.

Seafood news

Vietnam seafood industry group urges halt to US-bound seafood shipments

The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) urged Vietnam’s seafood exporters to suspend shipments to the United States pending the results of negotiations over the 46 percent Trump Tariff announced last week, VN Economy reported.

The article notes that over 37,000 tonnes of seafood are currently en route to the US; another 31,500 tonnes are scheduled for April–May and that Vietnamese exporters risk massive losses due to DDP (Delivered Duty Paid) contracts that require them to pay duties upfront.

Stock market news

Vietnam to remain on FTSE Russell emerging market upgrade watch list

FTSE Russell has retained Vietnam on its Watch List for possible reclassification from Frontier to Secondary Emerging market status, citing ongoing progress but noting that key market access criteria are still unmet, according to the FTSE Equity Country Classification March 2025 Interim Announcement.

Key points in its assessment include:

The pre-funding requirement for foreign institutional investors has been removed, but FTSE Russell says it is still seeking feedback from key stakeholders on this adjustment.
Vietnam has not yet met two critical criteria (both connected to the previous point):
– Settlement Cycle (Delivery vs. Payment).
– Settlement costs related to failed trades.
Additional improvements are still needed in:
– Foreign investor account registration, which remains slow.
– Mechanisms for trading at/near foreign ownership limits (FOLs).

Of note, Vietnam has been on the FTSE Watch List since September 2018. FTSE Russell’s next review will be in September.

Foreign traders net-sell US$340.13 million of HoSE stocks

Over the last five trading sessions to the close of business on April 10, foreign investors net-sold US$340.13 million worth of HCMC Stock Exchange stocks. This brings the total net-sold since the start of the year to US$1.4 billion or US$4.9 billion since January 1, 2024.

Foreign trader activity, last five trading days

	Buy		Sell		Change
Date	VND	US$	VND	US$	VND	US$
3/4	2,050	$79.59	5,739	$222.81	-3,689	-$143.22
4/4	4,342	$168.57	7,104	$275.80	-2,762	-$107.23
8/4	2,618	$101.64	4,344	$168.65	-1,726	-$67.01
9/4	4,747	$184.30	4,475	$173.74	272	$10.56
10/4	552	$21.43	1,408	$54.66	-856	-$33.23
Total	14,309	$555.53	23,070	$895.66	-8,761	-$340.13

VND = billions; US$ = millions; source: Vietnam Stock Market Tracker

Tourism news

Vietnam tourist arrivals top 2 million in March

Vietnam welcomed 2,054,309 international tourists in March, marking an 8.5 percent increase from February, according to Vietnam’s General Department of Tourism. Of the five segments recorded, the most foreign tourists came from Asia accounting for 1,614,360 arrivals with the biggest source country being China which accounted for 630,898 of Vietnam’s tourist arrivals in March.

Trade news

Vietnam imposes temporary anti-dumping duties on China, South Korea coated steel

Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) will issue temporary anti-dumping duties on certain coated steel products originating from China and South Korea per Decision 914/QD-BCT. The move aims to protect domestic manufacturers from a surge in low-priced imports, according to a statement on its website.

Temporary duty rates on Chinese coated steel are set at up to 37.13 percent and for South Korea up to 15.67 percent.

Vietnam exports top US$38.5 billion in March

Vietnam’s exports jumped to US$38.5 billion in March up from US$31.1 billion in February. This represents an increase of 23.79 percent. Notably, March is a few days longer than February which may have contributed to the size of the increase.

Vietnam’s imports top US$36.9 billion in March

Vietnam’s imports reached US$36.9 billion in March, a 12.91 percent jump compared to February. Notably, February is a few days shorter than March so this might account for some of the difference.

The week ahead

There are a handful of events coming up this week. For more information, see: Doing Business in Vietnam: Events Directory 2025.

Of note: If you’re looking for an in-depth assessment of anything to do with the business environment in Vietnam, I do take commissions and I am always open to collaborate. You can reach me on LinkedIn – Mark

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