This week’s Vietnam News Roundup covers the dong’s continued slide, diverging growth forecasts from ADB and AMRO, a global release for a Vietnam–Thailand horror film, visa reform for foreign talent, HCMC’s housing shortfall, and warnings over Trump tariffs on exports.
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Banking and finance news
Vietnam dong continues to fall against greenback
The dong weakened further against the greenback this week, with the central exchange rate reaching a new low of VND 25,191 to the dollar on Monday.
Toward the end of the week, however, it did get a little stronger, ending Thursday at 25,166.
This puts the currency down 3.39 percent since the start of the year.
The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), however, continued to pump money into the economy.
There were US$7.07 billion worth of reverse repos outstanding as of close of business July 10. This was up slightly from US$4.99 billion at the same time last week.
The SBV has also continued to issue treasury bills, with about US$1 billion outstanding as of last night.
See also: How Low Can the Vietnamese Dong Go? Why It’s Sliding & What Might Happen Next
Economy news
ADB cuts Vietnam 2025–26 growth and inflation forecasts
Vietnam’s economic outlook for both 2025 and 2026 has been revised down by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on challenges in external demand, per the bank’s Asian Development Outlook July 2025→view source.
The country’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been cut from 6.6 percent to 6.3 percent, while the 2026 projection has been lowered from 6.5 percent to 6.0 percent.
ADB ASEAN growth forecasts July 2025
| GDP Growth | Inflation | |||||||
| Forecast Year | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2026 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2026 |
| Report Month | April | July | April | July | April | July | April | July |
| Southeast Asia | 4.7 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| Indonesia | 5 | 5 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2 | 1.5 | 2 | 2 |
| Malaysia | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Philippines | 6 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 3 | 2.2 | 3 | 3 |
| Singapore | 2.6 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 2 | 1 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Thailand | 2.8 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Vietnam | 6.6 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6 | 4 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 3.8 |
See also: Vietnam’s H1:2025 GDP Growth: Key Drivers, Rising Risks
AMRO revises up Vietnam 2025 growth forecast to 7 percent
Vietnam’s GDP growth is projected to reach 7 percent in 2025, revised up from 6.5 percent in April, while 2026 growth is forecast at 6.5 percent, up from 6.2 percent, according to the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) Update, July 2025→view source.
This is in contrast to the ADB, which at about the same time has revised its growth forecasts down (see above).
ASEAN+3: AMRO Growth and Inflation Projections, 2025–26
| GDP (Percent year-on-year) | CPI (Percent year-on-year) | |||||||
| 2025 | July Update | 2025 | July Update | |||||
| 2025f | 2026f | 2025f | 2026f | 2025f | 2026f | 2025f | 2026f | |
| ASEAN | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4 | 3 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.7 |
| Brunei Darussalam | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Cambodia | 5.8 | 6 | 5.2 | 5 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Indonesia | 5 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Lao PDR | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 10.1 | 6.4 |
| Malaysia | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2 | 2.2 |
| Myanmar | 1 | 1 | –1.0 | 1.5 | 25 | 18 | 30 | 28 |
| The Philippines | 6.3 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 3.2 |
| Singapore | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1 | 0.8 |
| Thailand | 2.9 | 3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Vietnam | 6.5 | 6.2 | 7 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 3 | 3.4 | 3 |
Creative industries news
Film: Vietnam–Thailand horror flick to get global release in August
The Bride, a Thailand–Vietnam horror film, is set for a global release, Variety has reported→view source.
This is significant in that making films in Vietnam has historically been challenging, though notably, over the last year or so, the Government of Vietnam has been actively working to try to make Vietnam a more attractive destination for filming.
See: Why More Foreign Films Aren’t Made in Vietnam
Human resources news
Labour: Vietnam five-year visa exemption for high-profile talent floated by MPS
Vietnam’s Ministry of Public Security has proposed a special five-year visa exemption scheme for selected high-profile foreigners—including scientists, executives, artists, and Olympic medallists—as part of efforts to attract global talent and boost national competitiveness, Vietnam News has reported→view source.
Key details:
- Eligibility: Includes top 100 company executives, STEM PhDs, award-winning scientists, international artists, and high-profile athletes.
- Residency rights: Each entry grants 90 days of stay.
- Cultural sector inclusion: Also applies to influential creators with 1M+ followers promoting Vietnamese culture or tourism.
- Strategic aim: Aims to support growth in semiconductors, science, tech, digital industries, culture, and sport.
- Policy tool: Forms part of the broader “Vietnam Industrial Development Strategy 2025” and national innovation goals.
See also: Vietnam’s Labour Law 2025: Working Hours, Overtime, Leave & More
Logistics news
Vietnam’s delivery market grows 12.8 percent in H1, but margins fall to 3 percent
Vietnam’s postal and delivery services sector saw revenue increase by 12.8 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2025 to VND 38.3 trillion (US$1.46 billion), according to the Ministry of Science and Technology.
Intensifying competition and rising cost pressures, however, have pushed average profit margins down to just 3 percent, the Vietnam News Agency has reported→view source.
See also: Logistics in Vietnam 2025: Shipping, Ports, Customs & Warehousing
Manufacturing news
Chinese furniture firm expands in Vietnam to mitigate tariff risks, boost efficiency
China’s Nice Link Home Furnishings is doubling its upholstery and cut-and-sew facilities in Ho Chi Minh City and Danang to over 650,000 square feet in total, in response to rising US demand and ongoing tariff uncertainty, Furniture Today has reported→view source.
However, labour issues are a problem.
“… labour continues to be a challenge with many industries all moving to Vietnam at the same time. It’s a small labour pool compared with China,” Carlson told the publication.
He also noted that Chinese workers were over three times more efficient than their Vietnamese counterparts.
See also: Vietnam Furniture Manufacturing 2025: Market, Exports & Key Players
Real estate news
HCMC short 179,000 housing units as legal hurdles stall supply
Ho Chi Minh City is facing a major housing shortage, having achieved only 24 percent of its 2021–2025 housing development target, according to a Q2 market report from Savills Vietnam, and reported by The Investor→view source.
Just 56,000 of the planned 235,000 new units have been delivered, leaving a gap of 179,000 units amid tightening legal bottlenecks and sluggish approval processes.
See also: Real Estate in Vietnam 2025: Trends, Challenges & Outlook
Stock market news
Foreign traders net-sell US$64.85 million of HoSE stocks
Over the last five trading sessions to the close of business on July 24, foreign investors net-sold US$64.85 million worth of HCMC Stock Exchange (HoSE) stocks.
This was somewhat counter to the general mood of the market, with the VN-Index continuing to rally, breaching the 1,500-point market at several points this week.
This year’s rally, however, has largely been powered by just a handful of stocks with fairly small floats, which would explain why foreign investors have not jumped back in to a significant extent.
See also: Explainer: What’s Driving Vietnam’s Stock Market Rally?
Foreign trader activity, last five trading days
| Buy | Sell | Change | ||||
| Date | VND | US$ | VND | US$ | VND | US$ |
| 21/7 | 4,264 | $163.15 | 4,089 | $156.46 | 175 | $6.70 |
| 22/7 | 3,773 | $144.37 | 5,530 | $211.59 | -1,757 | -$67.23 |
| 23/7 | 3,590 | $137.36 | 3,344 | $127.95 | 246 | $9.41 |
| 24/7 | 5,027 | $192.35 | 5,233 | $200.23 | -206 | -$7.88 |
| 17/7 | 3,679 | $140.63 | 3,832 | $146.48 | -153 | -$5.85 |
| Total | 20,333 | $777.86 | 22,028 | $842.71 | -1,695 | -$64.85 |
VND = billions; US$ = millions; source: HSX
Tax news
Vietcombank urges removal of foreign withholding tax duty
Vietcombank has asked the government to scrap the requirement that commercial banks withhold and pay taxes on behalf of foreign entities without a physical presence in Vietnam, The Investor has reported→view source.
The bank is arguing that it is unfeasible and inconsistent with global norms.
See also: Tax in Vietnam 2025 Explained: CIT, VAT, PIT & More
Trade news
Vietnam warns Trump tariffs could slash US exports by a third
Vietnam may lose up to US$37 billion in export revenue to the US if tariffs of 20 to 40 percent announced by President Donald Trump take effect, according to a government assessment prepared for Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh’s advisory council, and reported by Bloomberg→view source.
Key details:
- Export decline forecast: Up to one-third of Vietnam’s total US exports, currently valued at US$120 billion, could be affected.
- Sector impact: Electronics faces the largest hit with a potential US$15 billion drop, followed by machinery, garments, footwear and furniture.
- Geopolitical framing: The internal document says Trump’s tariff agenda aims “to restrain China’s ‘galloping’ development and rebuild its [the United States’] position.”
See also: Trump’s Vietnam Trade Deal Announcement: Sectors to Watch
Taiwan imposes five-year anti-dumping duties on Vietnam cement exports
Taiwan’s Ministry of Finance has announced five-year anti-dumping duties on Portland cement and clinker imports from Vietnam, effective from 28 July 2025, following a joint investigation with the Ministry of Economic Affairs, Focus Taiwan has reported→view source.
See also: Vietnam’s Cement Industry 2025: Growth, Exports & Key Players
The week ahead
There are a handful of events coming up this week. For more information, see: Doing Business in Vietnam: Events Directory 2025.