Vietnam News Roundup: April 25 to May 1

In case you missed it…

Marx to the Market: A Brief History of Vietnam’s Post-Reunification Economic Development

Fifty years ago this month, the citizens of Ho Chi Minh City were watching the skies as US military helicopters evacuated the last of their personnel. Conversely, this month, in 2025, the citizens of Ho Chi Minh City looking skyward are unlikely to see US helicopters and instead more likely to see the VN Pay logo made up of hundreds of drones. An advertisement for a banking and finance app to be sure, this is also largely emblematic of just how far Vietnam’s economic ideology has shifted in the last 50 years… Read More »

Automotive news

Vinfast full-year 2024 loss up 28.4 percent over 2023

Vietnamese electric vehicle (EV) maker VinFast reported a full-year loss for 2024 of US$3.18 billion, up 28.4 percent from 2023. It has also reported a US$1.26 billion loss in Q4 2024, an 81 percent increase year-on-year, Bloomberg has reported.

This comes after extensive shortcomings in its market entry strategy in the US and Europe saw the firm fail to gain a foothold. It has since announced a pivot to Asia. This may, however, be a hail Mary. With extensive losses racking up, a lot of cars will need to be sold in these new markets, where competition in the electric car space is fierce, particularly from more well known and established Chinese electric car models.

See also: Media Relations in Vietnam: Lessons from VinFast

Banking and finance news

BIDV flags risk to US$11.6 billion credit portfolio from US tariffs

At its 2025 annual general meeting, BIDV Chairman Phan Duc Tu warned that US “reciprocal” tariffs could affect around VND 300 trillion (US$11.58 billion) of the bank’s outstanding loans, representing 15 percent of the bank’s total credit portfolio. Industries most at risk include steel, plastics, seafood, textiles, and electronics, Cafe F has reported. 

This speaks to the ripple effects of US tariffs threatening not only Vietnam’s export sectors but also the stability of the banking system. BIDV’s early warning highlights the broader systemic risks that protectionist policies can pose to emerging markets with deep trade exposure.

See also: Banking in Vietnam: Industry Overview

Vietnam dong continues fall

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has continued to carry out open market operations. Notably, there were US$2.53 billion worth of reverse repos outstanding as of the close of business May 1. There were, however, no outstanding treasury bills.

Of note, the value of the dong slid again this week. Whereas this time last week it was down by 2.41 percent over the start of the year, as of close of business May 1, it was down by 2.52 percent (based on the central exchange rate set by the SBV).

See also:  Right Now, a Weak Dong Could be Good for Vietnam. Here’s Why.

Economy news

World Bank cuts Vietnam’s 2025 growth forecast to 5.8 percent

Vietnam’s growth outlook for 2025 has been significantly downgraded by the World Bank, with projections falling to 5.8 percent from 6.5 percent forecast in October 2024, according to its April 2025 World Bank East Asia and the Pacific Economic Update.

Notably, the World Bank is not alone in its revisions. Last week, the International Monetary Fund lowered its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam for 2025 to 5.2 percent down from the 6.1 percent forecast back in October.

Regional comparison:

See also: How to Start a Business in Vietnam

Energy news

PM pushes for US$6 billion US methanol gas deal to help balance trade

Vietnam’s Prime Minister has ordered urgent negotiations to finalise a US$6 billion methanol gas import agreement with the United States, framing it as a cornerstone of efforts to balance trade and defuse tariff tensions. The PM has said he expects a deal to be finalised in May, according to Cafe F.

Additional points of note:

• The government also aims to boost imports of US goods such as medical equipment, pharmaceuticals, beef, and fruit to improve the bilateral trade balance.
• The PM wants to see a reciprocal zero-tariff arrangement and formal recognition by the US of Vietnam as a market economy.
• Fourteen ministries have been directed to submit policy proposals by May 5 to finalise a Decree on Vietnam’s trade strategy.

Increasing imports of gas from the United States has been floated a number of times over the last six months as a means to reduce Vietnam’s trade surplus with the US. This has usually centred around LNG for power.

Methanol, on the other hand, is usually blended with petrol to reduce the cost among other things. That said, adding methanol to petrol has been banned in Vietnam since 2012. If this deal goes ahead it will be interesting to see how all that fuel gets used or if that ban might be rolled back.

See also: Vietnam Gas Power Industry 2025: Growth, Challenges & Key Players 

Food and beverage news

Vietnam’s Vinamilk optimistic on growth despite US tariffs

Vietnam’s largest dairy producer Vinamilk expects minimal disruption from US “reciprocal” tariffs due to its strong domestic focus, CEO Mai Kieu Lien told shareholders at the firm’s 2025 AGM last Friday, The Investor has reported. 

Mai said that the domestic market accounts for the majority of Vinamilk’s US$2.5 billion revenue with its US operations contributing only around US$120 million, or just 5 percent of total revenue. In this context, she believes tariff reductions on US dairy imports will have limited impact on Vietnam’s domestic market.

This speaks to the view on the ground from Vietnam’s dairy industry of the Trump administration’s planned 46 percent tariff on Vietnam-made goods and possible import tariff cuts to try to lower that tariff rate. Notably, the demand for milk domestically is huge with about half of the milk Vietnam consumes imported.

See also: Dairy in Vietnam: Industry Overview

Vietnam beer maker Sabeco to double down on local market amid tariff risks

Vietnamese beer maker Sabeco will focus its growth strategy on the domestic Vietnamese market rather than export markets, CEO Lester Tan Teck Chuan has told shareholders. Exports currently account for just 1 percent of Sabeco’s revenue, and rising global risks, including potential U.S. “reciprocal” tariffs on aluminum have reinforced the brewer’s domestic focus, English news site, The Investor has reported.

Of note, Sabeco’s focus on the domestic beer market, as opposed to export markets, underscores the challenges and opportunities for Vietnamese consumer goods firms navigating trade risks and cost pressures expanding overseas. That said, the local beer market has faced several of its own unique challenges in recent years, specifically changing consumption patterns and drink-driving reforms.

See: What’s Happened to Vietnam’s Beer Market? Unpacked 2024

Stock market news

Foreign traders net-sell US$14.34 million of HoSE stocks

Over the last five trading sessions to the close of business on May 1, foreign investors net-sold US$14.34 million worth of HCMC Stock Exchange stocks. This brings the total net-sold since the start of the year to US$1.51 billion or US$4.99 billion since January 1, 2024.

See also: Vietnam’s Foreign Investor Stock Sell-Off: Unpacked

Foreign trader activity, last five trading days

VND = billions; US$ = millions; source: Vietnam Stock Market Tracker

Tax news

Vietnam’s sugary drink tax plan falls short of WHO recommendations

Vietnam plans to introduce a new excise tax on sugary drinks starting at 8 percent, but health officials and WHO experts have told a press conference in Hanoi a much higher rate is needed to curb rising obesity and non-communicable diseases, as reported in by Dan Tri.

Key points in the article include:

• The draft revised Law on Special Consumption Tax proposes an 8 percent tax on sugary drinks in 2027, rising to 10 percent in 2028.
• WHO recommends a 40 percent tax to meaningfully reduce consumption and protect public health.
• Health officials warn that a modest 10 percent tax will have minimal impact, calling for stronger measures to prevent a looming public health crisis.

Of note, there have been a slew of industry-organised conferences to discuss adding sugary drinks to Vietnam’s special consumption tax that have tended to skew toward pushing back against the idea. This press conference, however, adds a much needed public health perspective.

See also: Is a Sugar Tax Right for Vietnam?

Trade news

Vietnamese exporters warn of collapse if US tariffs return: “We could not survive”

Two Vietnamese entrepreneurs, whose firms depend almost entirely on exports to the United States, have voiced concerns about the impact of the proposed 46 percent US tariff.

Speaking to BBC News, SHDC Electronics founder Le Song Hao and KPY Interior CEO Hoang Thi Nhu Yen said their businesses are already under pressure and may not survive if punitive tariffs are reinstated after the current 90-day suspension.

Hao told the BBC that the 46 percent tariff would be “a disaster” and could cause the company to “go bankrupt.”

Similarly, Yen from KPY Interior told the news outlet that though the 10 percent tariff now in place is bearable, any jump to 46 percent would make her products uncompetitive: “Consumers cannot accept a product that is already 46% more expensive due to tariffs alone.”

This speaks to the view from more export exposed business in Vietnam.

See also: What’s Next for Vietnam if Trump’s 46 Percent Tariff is Here To Stay?

The week ahead

There are a handful of events coming up this week. For more information, see: Doing Business in Vietnam: Events Directory 2025.