The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast for the Philippines to 5.6 percent, down 0.4 percentage points from its April projection of 6.0 percent, according to the September 2025 Asian Development Outlook (ADO).
For 2026, growth is now projected at 5.7 percent, also trimmed by 0.4 percentage points from April’s estimate of 6.1 percent.
On inflation, ADB revised its outlook sharply downward for 2025.
Consumer prices are now expected to rise by 1.8 percent, compared with the 3 percent forecast in April, reflecting subdued food prices and contained cost pressures.
For 2026, inflation is forecast to remain stable at 3 percent.
Despite the growth downgrade, the Philippines is still expected to expand faster than the Southeast Asia average of 4.3 percent in both 2025 and 2026.
Lower inflation also gives policymakers more space to maintain supportive monetary and fiscal policies to bolster domestic demand.
The Philippines’ revised 2025 forecast of 5.6 percent keeps it ahead of most major Southeast Asian peers, though below Vietnam’s upgraded 6.7 percent.
Indonesia is projected to grow 4.9 percent, Malaysia 4.3 percent, and Thailand just 2 percent. The regional average stands at 4.3 percent.
On inflation, the Philippines’ 1.8 percent forecast for 2025 is lower than Vietnam’s 3.9 percent but roughly in line with Malaysia’s 1.8 percent and Indonesia’s 1.7 percent, while only Thailand is projected to post lower inflation at 0.5 percent.
This combination of comparatively strong growth and subdued inflation suggests the Philippines remains among the more resilient economies in the bloc despite the downgrade.
See also: The Philippines’ Economy 2025: GDP, FDI, Trade & Key Industries
GDP growth forecasts (% per year)
| 2025 | 2026 | |||||
| Apr | Sep | Change | Apr | Sep | Change | |
| Southeast Asia | 4.7 | 4.3 | -0.4 | 4.7 | 4.3 | -0.5 |
| Vietnam | 6.6 | 6.7 | 0.1 | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 |
| Indonesia | 5.0 | 4.9 | -0.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | -0.1 |
| Philippines | 6.0 | 5.6 | -0.4 | 6.1 | 5.7 | -0.4 |
| Thailand | 2.8 | 2.0 | -0.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 | -1.3 |
| Malaysia | 4.9 | 4.3 | -0.6 | 4.8 | 4.2 | -0.6 |
Inflation forecasts (% per year)
| 2025 | 2026 | |||||
| Apr | Sep | Change | Apr | Sep | Change | |
| Southeast Asia | 3 | 2.5 | -0.5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | -0.1 |
| Vietnam | 4 | 3.9 | -0.1 | 4.2 | 3.8 | -0.4 |
| Indonesia | 2 | 1.7 | -0.3 | 2 | 2 | 0.0 |
| Philippines | 3 | 1.8 | -1.2 | 3 | 3 | 0.0 |
| Thailand | 1 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | -0.3 |
| Malaysia | 2.5 | 1.8 | -0.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 | -0.3 |