Vietnam’s 2025 GDP growth forecast has been revised slightly higher to 6.7 percent, even as the Asian Development Bank (ADB) cut its projections for Southeast Asia as a whole, according to the September 2025 update of its Asian Development Outlook (ADO).
The adjustment marks a 0.1 percentage point increase from ADB’s April forecast of 6.6 percent for Vietnam, underscoring continued resilience in manufacturing and investment.
However, the 2026 forecast was trimmed to 6.0 percent, down from 6.5 percent, reflecting longer-term structural headwinds.
Across Southeast Asia, growth expectations were lowered by 0.4 percentage points to 4.3 percent in 2025, with a further 0.5 percentage point downgrade for 2026, also to 4.3 percent.
The cuts reflect weaker global demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and uneven recovery across member economies.
Inflation pressures are also seen easing.
Vietnam’s consumer prices are now forecast to rise 3.9 percent in 2025 and 3.8 percent in 2026, down from April estimates of 4.0 and 4.2 percent.
Regional inflation was also revised lower, with 2025 projected at 2.5 percent and 2026 at 2.7 percent.
While the ADB cut forecasts for most regional economies in its September 2025 update, Vietnam was the only major market to see an upgrade for 2025, now expected to expand 6.7 percent.
By contrast, Indonesia’s forecast was trimmed to 4.9 percent, the Philippines to 5.6 percent, Malaysia to 4.3 percent, and Thailand to just 2 percent.
Vietnam inflation, however, is projected to come in higher than Indonesia (1.7 percent), the Philippines (1.8 percent), Malaysia (1.8 percent), and Thailand (0.5 percent).
See also: Vietnam’s Economy 2025: GDP, FDI & Key Industries Overview
GDP growth forecasts (% per year)
| 2025 | 2026 | |||||
| Apr | Sep | Change | Apr | Sep | Change | |
| Southeast Asia | 4.7 | 4.3 | -0.4 | 4.7 | 4.3 | -0.5 |
| Vietnam | 6.6 | 6.7 | 0.1 | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 |
| Indonesia | 5.0 | 4.9 | -0.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | -0.1 |
| Philippines | 6.0 | 5.6 | -0.4 | 6.1 | 5.7 | -0.4 |
| Thailand | 2.8 | 2.0 | -0.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 | -1.3 |
| Malaysia | 4.9 | 4.3 | -0.6 | 4.8 | 4.2 | -0.6 |
Inflation forecasts (% per year)
| 2025 | 2026 | |||||
| Apr | Sep | Change | Apr | Sep | Change | |
| Southeast Asia | 3 | 2.5 | -0.5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | -0.1 |
| Vietnam | 4 | 3.9 | -0.1 | 4.2 | 3.8 | -0.4 |
| Indonesia | 2 | 1.7 | -0.3 | 2 | 2 | 0.0 |
| Philippines | 3 | 1.8 | -1.2 | 3 | 3 | 0.0 |
| Thailand | 1 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | -0.3 |
| Malaysia | 2.5 | 1.8 | -0.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 | -0.3 |