Indonesia’s economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 4.9 percent, a 0.1 percentage point cut from April, according to the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) September 2025 Asian Development Outlook (ADO).
The modest downgrade reflects softer expectations for Southeast Asia as global demand weakens and external headwinds persist.
For 2026, growth is now projected at 5.0 percent, down slightly from the earlier 5.1 percent forecast.
Inflation is expected to remain subdued.
Consumer prices are forecast to rise 1.7 percent in 2025, compared with the April projection of 2 percent, before holding steady at 2 percent in 2026.
This places Indonesia among the most stable economies in the region on price pressures, giving policymakers some leeway to support activity if growth slows further.
Indonesia’s revised outlook places it in the middle of the ASEAN growth pack.
At 4.9 percent in 2025, its projected growth is stronger than Thailand’s 2 percent and Malaysia’s 4.3 percent, but lags behind the Philippines at 5.6 percent and Vietnam at 6.7 percent.
The regional average for Southeast Asia is also 4.3 percent, meaning Indonesia is expected to outperform the bloc overall, though not by as much as in earlier forecasts.
On inflation, Indonesia remains one of the most stable.
At 1.7 percent in 2025, its price outlook is lower than Vietnam’s 3.9 percent, Malaysia’s 1.8 percent, the Philippines’ 1.8 percent, and well above Thailand’s near-flat 0.5 percent.
The regional average is 2.5 percent.
This makes Indonesia comparatively better placed to keep inflation under control while sustaining steady, if slightly softened, growth.
See also: Indonesia’s Economy 2025: GDP, FDI & Key Industries
GDP growth forecasts (% per year)
| 2025 | 2026 | |||||
| Apr | Sep | Change | Apr | Sep | Change | |
| Southeast Asia | 4.7 | 4.3 | -0.4 | 4.7 | 4.3 | -0.5 |
| Vietnam | 6.6 | 6.7 | 0.1 | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 |
| Indonesia | 5.0 | 4.9 | -0.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | -0.1 |
| Philippines | 6.0 | 5.6 | -0.4 | 6.1 | 5.7 | -0.4 |
| Thailand | 2.8 | 2.0 | -0.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 | -1.3 |
| Malaysia | 4.9 | 4.3 | -0.6 | 4.8 | 4.2 | -0.6 |
Inflation forecasts (% per year)
| 2025 | 2026 | |||||
| Apr | Sep | Change | Apr | Sep | Change | |
| Southeast Asia | 3 | 2.5 | -0.5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | -0.1 |
| Vietnam | 4 | 3.9 | -0.1 | 4.2 | 3.8 | -0.4 |
| Indonesia | 2 | 1.7 | -0.3 | 2 | 2 | 0.0 |
| Philippines | 3 | 1.8 | -1.2 | 3 | 3 | 0.0 |
| Thailand | 1 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | -0.3 |
| Malaysia | 2.5 | 1.8 | -0.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 | -0.3 |