Last week, the Government of Vietnam issued Decision 768/QD-TTg significantly revising the Power Development Plan 8 (PDP8). This comes less than two years after the first PDP8 was issued and makes some substantial changes to Vietnam’s goals and expectations.
Notably, the PDP8 is a cornerstone of Vietnam’s electricity industry, and with this in mind, this article breaks down how this plan has changed.
The revised PDP8 guiding framework
The PDP8 has revised a number of key assumptions that inform how the plan is structured.
GDP growth targets
Whereas the original PDP8 was built around an expectation for GDP growth of 7 percent a year between 2021 and 2030, that has now been revised up to 10 percent annually for the period 2026 to 2030. For the 2031 to 2050 period, the target has been firmed up from a range of 6.5–7.5 percent to a consistent 7.5 percent a year.
Commercial electricity demand
The 2030 target for commercial electricity output has been revised from a fixed 505.2 billion kWh to a range of 500.4–557.8 billion kWh. The 2050 target has increased from a range of 1,114.1–1,254.6 billion kWh to 1,237.7–1,375.1 billion kWh.
Electricity production and import
The 2030 figure for total electricity generation and import has been revised upward from 567.0 billion kWh to 560.4–624.6 billion kWh. The 2050 estimate has likewise been lifted from 1,224.3–1,378.7 billion kWh to a range of 1,360.1–1,511.1 billion kWh.
Installed capacity
The 2030 target for total installed capacity has been updated from 90,512 MW to a slightly broader range of 89,655–99,934 MW. The 2050 figure has seen a notable increase, from 185,187–208,555 MW to 205,732–228,570 MW.
Electricity reliability and access
Both versions of the plan aim to meet N-1 criteria for important load areas and N-2 for especially critical areas by 2030, but the revised plan adds specific mention of nuclear power zones. Targets to rank among the top four ASEAN countries for electricity reliability and top three for access remain unchanged.
Changes to Vietnam’s energy mix
A number of targets and expectations have been changed in the revised PDP8. Generally speaking, there has been a shift from specific targets to more broader target ranges presumably to give power system developers greater flexibility.
Wind power
Whereas the 2023 PDP8 aimed to increase the share of renewables through onshore and offshore wind, solar, and biomass, the 2025 revision significantly expands these targets.
Onshore and nearshore wind capacity by 2030 has been revised up from 21,880 MW to a range of 26,066–38,029 MW.
Offshore wind for domestic use is now expected to reach 6,000–17,032 MW by 2035, up from a flat 6,000 MW in the original plan. The long-term goal has increased from 70,000–91,500 MW to 113,503–139,097 MW by 2050.
See also: Vietnam’s Wind Power Industry: Overview
Solar power
Solar targets have also been lifted. The 2023 plan targeted 168–189 GW by 2050, but the revised plan raises this to 293–296 GW, with rooftop solar included under self-consumption provisions. Notably, the 2025 plan mandates that concentrated solar must include storage (minimum 10 percent of capacity, 2-hour duration), a requirement absent in the 2023 version.
See also: Vietnam’s Solar Power Industry: Overview
Biomass and waste-to-energy
The 2023 plan projected a combined 2,270 MW of biomass and waste-based power by 2030, with a goal of 6,015 MW by 2050. The revised plan gives a more detailed breakdown: 1,523–2,699 MW from biomass and 1,441–2,137 MW from waste by 2030, rising to 4,829–6,960 MW and 1,784–2,137 MW, respectively, by 2050. Geothermal and other new energy sources are now explicitly included, with a 2050 target of 464 MW.
Hydropower
The 2023 and 2025 plans are largely aligned on hydropower, though the revised version lifts the 2030 target slightly from 29,346 MW to 33,294–34,667 MW, with a stable 2050 goal of 40,624 MW. Both emphasise environmental protection and selective expansion.
Storage capacity
Battery storage targets have been revised sharply upward. The 2023 plan aimed for 300 MW of battery storage by 2030; the 2025 update increases this to 10,000–16,300 MW. Pumped hydro also rises from 2,400 MW to a range of 2,400–6,000 MW by 2030. Combined storage capacity is expected to hit 96 GW by 2050, up from a prior estimate of 30–45 GW.
Cogeneration and industrial sources
The 2023 plan set targets of 2,700 MW by 2030 and 4,500 MW by 2050 for cogeneration and waste-heat recovery plants. The 2025 version retains the direction but integrates these sources under flexible and industrial generation without specifying capacity.
Coal-fired thermal power
Both plans restrict coal to projects under construction, capping 2030 capacity at ~31 GW. However, the 2025 plan sets a firmer roadmap for fuel conversion: all coal plants must convert to biomass/ammonia or shut down by 2050, with a total converted capacity of 25,798 MW. The 2023 plan cited a range of 25.6–32.4 GW. Cancelled coal projects are retained in both plans, though 2025 updates the list of high-risk projects.
See also: Vietnam’s Coal Power Industry: Overview
Gas and LNG
The 2025 plan provides a more nuanced roadmap for gas: domestic gas capacity by 2030 is adjusted to 10,861–14,930 MW, compared to 14,930 MW in the 2023 version. A new emphasis is placed on hydrogen conversion, with 7,030 MW of gas-to-hydrogen plants planned by 2050. LNG capacity by 2030 is revised from 22,400 MW to 22,524 MW, with hydrogen blending, CCS, and conversion included in the 2050 roadmap (totaling up to 26,123 MW + 11,325 MW + 2,269 MW for hydrogen and CCS adaptations).
See also: Vietnam’s Gas Power Industry: Overview
Nuclear power
Absent from the 2023 plan, nuclear power has been reintroduced in 2025. Ninh Thuan Nuclear Power Plants 1 & 2, with 4,000–6,400 MW, are to be operational by 2035. By 2050, total nuclear capacity could reach 10,500–14,000 MW, contingent on demand.
See also: Nuclear Power in Vietnam: Unpacked
Flexible capacity
Flexible sources — gas or hybrid thermal units for peak support — were set at 300 MW by 2030 in the 2023 plan. This rises to 2,000–3,000 MW in the 2025 plan, with a new long-term target of 21,333–38,641 MW by 2050.
Electricity imports and exports
2023 projections set imports at 5,000–8,000 MW by 2030 and 11,000 MW by 2050. The 2025 version increases this to 9,360–12,100 MW by 2030 and 14,688 MW by 2050, with flexibility to increase early imports from Laos. Export targets to Cambodia (400 MW by 2030) and to Singapore, Malaysia and others (5,000–10,000 MW by 2035) are reaffirmed.
Vietnam’s energy mix by 2030 [table]
| Description | Original | % | Revised |
| Onshore wind power | 21,880 | 15% | 26,066 – 38,029 |
| Offshore wind power | 6,000 | 4% | 6,000 – 17,032 |
| Solar power | 12,836 | 9% | 46,459 – 73,416 |
| Biomass | 2,270 | 2% | 1,523 – 2,699 |
| Hydropower | 29,346 | 20% | 33,294 – 34,667 |
| Stored power (batteries) | 2,700 | 2% | 10,000 – 16,300 |
| Pumped storage hydro | — | — | 2,400 – 6,000 |
| Cogeneration | 2,700 | 2% | N/A |
| Coal | 30,127 | 20% | 31,055 |
| Converted coal (biomass/ammonia) | 0 | 0% | N/A |
| Gas (domestic) | 37,630 | 25% | 10,861 – 14,930 |
| Hydrogen-converted gas | — | — | — |
| LNG (conventional) | — | — | 22,524 |
| LNG + hydrogen mix | — | — | — |
| LNG (converted to hydrogen) | — | — | — |
| LNG + CCS | — | — | — |
| Hydrogen (dedicated) | 0 | 0% | N/A |
| Nuclear | — | — | 4,000 – 6,400 |
| Imports | 5,000 | 3% | 9,360 – 12,100 |
| Flexible sources (LNG, oil, hydrogen) | 0 | 0% | 2,000 – 3,000 |
| DPPA / new energy production | — | — | Not capacity-based |
| Exports | — | — | ~400 MW (to Cambodia) |
| Totals (domestic) | 250,489 | 100% | 183,291 – 236,363 |
Vietnam’s energy mix by 2050 [table]
| Description | Original | % | Revised |
| Onshore wind power | 60,050 – 77,050 | 12.2 – 13.4% | 84,696 – 91,400 |
| Offshore wind power | 70,000 – 91,500 | 14.3 – 16% | 113,503 – 139,097 |
| Solar power | 168,594 – 189,294 | 33.0 – 34.4% | 293,088 – 295,646 |
| Biomass | 6,015 | 1.0 – 1.2% | 4,829 – 6,960 |
| Hydropower | 36,016 | 6.3 – 7.3% | 40,624 |
| Stored power (batteries) | 30,650 – 45,550 | 6.2 – 7.9% | 95,983 – 96,120 |
| Pumped storage hydro | — | — | 20,691 – 21,327 |
| Cogeneration | 4,500 | 0.8 – 0.9% | Included in flexible |
| Coal | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Converted coal (biomass/ammonia) | 25,632 – 32,432 | 4.5 – 6.6% | 25,798 |
| Gas (domestic) | 14,930 | 2.6 – 3% | 7,900 |
| Hydrogen-converted gas | — | — | 7,030 |
| LNG (conventional) | — | — | — |
| LNG + hydrogen mix | — | — | 18,200 – 26,123 |
| LNG (converted to hydrogen) | — | — | 8,576 – 11,325 |
| LNG + CCS | — | — | 1,887 – 2,269 |
| Hydrogen (dedicated) | 20,900 – 29,900 | 4.1 – 5.4% | (included above) |
| Nuclear | — | — | 10,500 – 14,000 |
| Imports | 11,042 | 1.9 – 2.3% | 14,688 |
| Flexible sources (LNG, oil, hydrogen) | 30,900 – 46,200 | 6.3 – 8.1% | 21,333 – 38,641 |
| DPPA / new energy production | — | ~30–60% of RE | Not capacity-based |
| Exports | — | — | ~10,000 MW (maintained) |
| Totals (domestic) | 490,529 – 573,129 | N/A | 774,503 – 838,681 |
Investment capital needs
Whereas the 2023 PDP8 estimated a total investment of US$134.7 billion for the 2021–2030 period, the revised 2025 version increases the figure slightly to US$136.3 billion for the narrower timeframe of 2026–2030. Although the total is similar, the updated plan shifts more capital toward grid development — raising transmission investment from US$14.9 billion to US$18.1 billion — reflecting the growing need to support variable renewable energy and smart grid upgrades.
For the 2031–2050 period, the 2023 plan estimated total investment at US$399.2–523.1 billion, including US$364.4–511.2 billion for power sources and US$34.8–38.6 billion for transmission. The 2025 version divides this long-term horizon into two phases:
- 2031–2035: US$130.0 billion (US$114.1b for generation, US$15.9b for grid)
- 2036–2050: US$569.1 billion (US$541.2b for generation, US$27.9b for grid)
This leads to a new combined estimate of US$699.1 billion for 2031–2050, well above the original upper bound of US$523.1 billion — a 34 percent increase. The upward revision likely reflects the higher targets for offshore wind, hydrogen, storage, and nuclear capacity, all of which require significant capital outlays, as well as more detailed costing for ultra-high voltage transmission lines.
The overall capital allocation confirms a shift toward greater long-term ambition, with most of the financing — nearly 80 percent — required after 2030.
What’s next?
Vietnam’s updated Power Development Plan is ambitious much like its predecessor. Expectations of coal being phased out, renewables scaling rapidly, and bold investments in storage, hydrogen, and offshore wind, however, should be considered with a healthy dose of skepticism.
That is to say, the path ahead is complex—and plans can evolve. With this in mind, the best way to stay on top of the latest developments, shifts in policy, and what it all means for Vietnam’s economy, energy security, and climate commitments, is by subscribing to the-shiv.