The State Bank has set a credit growth target for 2025 of 16 percent. This is up from a 15 percent target in 2024. The State Bank has made clear that this is at the direction of the National Assembly, the Prime Minister, and the government.
Of note, whereas Vietnam in the first instance introduced credit growth limits to stymie out of control inflation, it has since reorientated credit growth policy to facilitate economic growth. This is seeing private debt rise rapidly along with bad debts as banks push lending on to consumers rather than due to growing demand.
As it stands, Vietnam’s private debt to GDP is sitting around 136 percent of GDP. If it hits this new 16 percent target then that should see debt to GDP at the end of next year somewhere around 148 percent of GDP.
See also: It’s Time to Talk About Vietnam’s Credit Growth Policy…