economy
The Economy category covers macroeconomic trends, fiscal policies, trade performance, and financial markets. It explores GDP growth, inflation, employment, investment flows, and regulatory changes, providing insights into economic stability, global trade relations, and policy impacts. This section serves as a resource for businesses, investors, and analysts monitoring economic developments.
IMF-Vietnam consultation report forecasts GDP growth of 6.1 percent 2024
The International Monetary Fund has released its Vietnam: 2024 Article IV Consultation report which breaks down the performance of Vietnam’s economy over the last 12 months. Notably, it forecasts GDP growth for this year and 2025 of 6.1 percent. The 97 page report also includes a number of recommendations…
S&P Global raises GDP growth outlook for Vietnam 0.4 points
The report notes that Vietnam and Malaysia in particular are experiencing strong growth in electronics exports and attracting substantial foreign direct investment in the electronics sector. However, it also notes that the electronics industry is known for its cyclical nature, and any decline in global demand could impact this momentum, leading to potential fluctuations in production and investment.
Indonesia officially applies to join Vietnam, others in CPTPP
Of note, the Indonesian and Vietnamese economies are relatively similar. They are both export oriented and have developed quickly by providing abundant low-cost abundant labour to global manufacturing. As such, the two countries often compete for foreign direct investment projects. In this context, Indonesia’s ascension to the agreement could chip away at Vietnam’s edge over its neighbour to the south.
ADB holds on Vietnam GDP forecast but ‘significant uncertainties on the horizon’
The Asian Development Bank has released its Asian Development Outlook report for September in which it keeps its growth forecast for Vietnam for this year at 6 percent. It also forecasts 6.2 percent for 2025. The publication notes that there are ‘significant uncertainties on the horizon’ alongside several key observations…
Ministry proposes solid nine-day stretch for Tet holiday in Vietnam in 2025
Notably, in 2024, the holiday ran from Thursday, February 8 to Wednesday, February 14 leaving just two days to be worked in the week, and in 2023 it ran from Friday January 20 to Thursday January 26, leaving just one working day left in the week. In this context, a continuous nine-day break would be a welcome change.
Vietnam coffee exports up 5.5 percent August over July
Vietnam’s coffee exports climbed by 5.5 percent in August over July from US$381.2 million to US$402.2 million. Vietnam’s coffee exports for the year now stand at US$4 billion which is an increase 35.6 percent over the same period last year. That said, Vietnam has seen a decline in the volume of coffee exports of 12.1 percent year-on-year.
Cross-border service providers see jump in tax payments in Vietnam year-on-year
Cross-border service providers that do not have an office in Vietnam have been required to pay tax under Vietnam’s Foreign Contractor Tax regime since 2021. Of note, most of these firms are actually required to open local offices per the Law on Cyber Security, however, few of them have with foreign firms in local offices set to “bear stricter supervision and satisfy more requirements,” according to the Ministry of Information and Communication…
Vietnam imports reach US$33.7 billion in August, down .4 percent vs July
Of note, Vietnam’s role in manufacturing supply chains is mostly in the final stages of assembly and packaging which is often performed using imported parts and components. The slight fall in imports month-on-month could therefore be indicative of a future decline in exports. That said, it is only data from one month–July’s imports were up 11.2 percent over June and one data point does not a pattern make. That said, it may still be worth keeping an eye on…
Vietnam steel pipes and tubes to face dumping duties in India
Of note, India also initiated an anti-dumping probe, at the request of the Indian Steel Association, back in August, into hot rolled coiled-steel from Vietnam. With this in mind, this latest piece of news may be an augur of things to come for Vietnam’s steel industry…
Vietnam exports reach US$37.8 billion in August, up 4.3 percent vs July
This data sita along side an increase in Vietnam’s Industrial Production Index of 2 percent in August over July and a Purchasing Managers’ Index in a growth phase for the fifth month in a row, speaks to further improvement in Vietnam’s manufacturing and processing industry after a challenging 2023…
Private sector CEOs in Vietnam on almost double SOE counterparts
Notably, earlier this year the Prime Minister of Vietnam, Pham Minh Chinh, suggested SOEs should consider foreigners for executive positions. He went on to say that better remuneration packages and higher salaries would be key. This latest development adds some context to the Prime Minister’s remarks and suggests that improvement in remuneration would need to be sizable.
Vietnam’s August Consumer Price Index stable at 4.04 percent
Vietnam’s Consumer Price Index slowed in August over July recording an increase of 3.45 percent compared to July’s 4.27 percent. Overall CPI remained steady at 4.04 percent safely within the government’s target range for the year of between 4 and 4.5 percent. Core inflation, meanwhile, saw an increase of 2.71
Japan’s Toyo Solar limits Vietnam solar panel production on trade investigation
Japan’s Toyo Solar is reducing its solar panel output at its Vietnam-base affiliate Vietnam Sunergy from 2.5 gigawatts this year to just 1.9 in response to a US trade investigation into solar panels from Vietnam, the company has said in a press release. The company goes on to say that it will wait for preliminary investigation results before making further moves…
US announces September Vietnam trade mission to boost agricultural exports
Of note, the US was slated to benefit from a range of tariff reductions on agricultural goods in Vietnam as part of the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement. It was, however, withdrawn by the Trump administration. This has put US agricultural producers on the back foot compared to other major agricultural producers like Australia and Canada in the Vietnam market…
Vietnam Court releases impact assessment of 2014 Bankruptcy Law
For context, it is not unusual for Vietnamese firms in financial distress to try and hold out for as long as possible offloading assets and leaving bills unpaid for months at a time–note that a firm in Vietnam is not considered insolvent until its debts are more than 90 days past due. This can be off-putting for foreign firms doing business in Vietnam with respect to working with local firms–it increases risks and subsequently costs.
World Bank ups GDP growth forecast for Vietnam in 2024
The World Bank has released its August 2024 Taking Stock Report in which it forecasts GDP growth in Vietnam of 6.1 percent. This was a significant bump from a forecast of just 5.5 percent in bank’s April Taking Stock Report…
Increase in Vietnam Value-Added Tax-exemption threshold under debate
The outcome of this debate is unlikely to have any direct impact on foreign invested enterprises in Vietnam, it is, however, worth bearing in mind when considering in small business investments in Vietnam.
Slew of new US trade remedies cases announced against Vietnam exports
This comes amid an increasing number of Chinese firms relocating at least part of their production south of the border in order to circumvent antidumping and countervailing duties in other parts of the world. That’s not to say, Vietnam is not-subsidising its own industries, with the US DOC finding earlier this year that government intervention in the market is beyond what is acceptable for it to be considered a market economy.
EuroCham exec says high attrition rates in Vietnam key challenge
Of note, the average wage of factory workers in Vietnam is generally higher than most other industries. On top of those wages, factory workers are also entitled to a number of relatively standard entitlements…
Taiwan launches antidumping investigation into Vietnam cement
In the first seven months of 2024, Vietnam exported 18,227,814 tons of cement and clinker worth US$669.2 million. This was a decline of 13.3 percent over the same period in 2023. To Taiwan specifically, it exported 891,050 tons worth US$32,125,934, according to data from Vietnam’s General Department of Customs.
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This is an interview with Dr Nuno F. Ribeiro, Associate Professor, International Tourism & Hospitality Management at Copenhagen Business College, formerly of RMIT Vietnam. It