The National Statistics Office (NSO) has released its October economic update.
This article breaks down the key data points and policy factors that shaped Vietnam’s economic landscape in October 2025 as well as the most recent economic news and developments.
Key developments
Vietnam State Bank returns to spending Forex to prop up dong
The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) sold another US$1.5 billion in 180-day cancellable forward contracts on 22 October 2025 — its third such move in less than two months — to stabilise the dong–dollar exchange rate.
The forward rate was set at VND 26,550 per US dollar.
Deal with US announced
The United States and Vietnam reached an agreement on a Framework for an Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade to deepen their bilateral economic relationship, the two countries have said in a statement.
The agreement will see Vietnam grant preferential access for nearly all US industrial and agricultural exports, while the US will maintain a 20 percent tariff rate on Vietnamese goods and apply zero tariffs to selected products.
Market economy status
It was reported that Donald Trump responded positively to Vietnam’s proposal for recognition as a market economy and removal from the US export control lists D1 and D3.
Note that this reporting came from the local press which is prone to positive spin. That is to say there was no concrete agreement with respect to these trade barriers reached.
Vietnam PM outlines 10 percent GDP growth target for 2026
At the 10th session of the 15th National Assembly earlier today, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh outlined 2026 goals for the government of at least 10 percent GDP growth, GDP per capita of US$5,400–5,500, and CPI around 4.5 percent.
He said these targets would be supported by industrialisation, digital transformation, and major infrastructure projects such as the North–South high-speed railway.
Vietnam to receive FTSE Russell secondary emerging market status in 2026, pending March review
FTSE Russell announced that Vietnam will be reclassified from a Frontier to a Secondary Emerging market effective 21 September 2026, pending an interim review in March 2026, according to the firm’s Country Classification September 2025 Announcement.
The decision follows reforms last year that removed the pre-funding requirement for foreign institutional investors and introduced a formal process for handling failed trades, meaning Vietnam now meets all technical criteria under the FTSE Equity Country Classification Framework.
Macroeconomy
Currency
The Vietnamese dong was held steady against the greenback, but the black market rate weakened significantly.
The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) opened the month with the central exchange rate at VND 25,187 to the dollar, but by October 31, it was trading at VND 25,093, stronger by VND 94 or 0.37 percent.
Conversely, the black market mid-market rates started the month at 26,565, jumping 1,260 dong to VND 27,825 by the end.
Notably, the SBV announced in October that it had requested the support of several ministries to crackdown on the illegal currency trade. It’s not clear, however, how effective this can really be. See: Vietnam’s Black Market Dong Dilemma: Unpacked
Inflation
Core inflation jumped ahead of headline inflation.
Headline Inflation dipped a little in October, reaching just 3.25 percent year-on-year, down from 3.38 percent in September.
Conversely, core inflation was up to 3.30 percent, up from 3.18 percent.
Manufacturing
Optimism in the manufacturing sector was up.
Vietnam’s Industrial Production Index (IIP) showed continued growth in October, rising 2.4 percent month-on-month.
Similarly, S&P’s Purchasing Manager’s Index reflected a continued expansion in Vietnam’s manufacturing sector, despite recording a fall in new export orders.
The index jumped to 54.5 in October, up 4.1 points from 50.4 in September.
Trade
Trade continued to contract though, only slightly.
Imports shrank by about .95 percent, with exports down 1.46 percent.
The USA remained Vietnam’s largest export market in October, with US$13.4 billion worth of goods shipped across the Pacific. This was down 2.30 percent over September.
Likewise, China remained Vietnam’s biggest import partner with Vietnam importing US$16.4 billion worth of goods from its northern neighbour.
Stock Market
VN-Index growth slowed.
The VN-Index slipped a little in October, losing about 22 points.
This was in line with September, which also saw the key index shed about 19 points.
It was, however, in stark contrast to August, when the index recorded a 176.69 point gain.
This is noteworthy in that August’s huge gain was mainly attributed to Vingroup and its subsidiaries.
Their rapid growth, however, now appears to have tapered off with Vingroup gaining just 9.21 percent versus 21.61 percent in August, Vincom Retail gaining just 3.74 percent versus 8.19 percent the month prior, and VinHomes going backwards, shedding 3.69 percent, versus a gain of 16.11 percent.
See also: Upgrade Pending: Vietnam Stock Market Outlook November 2025
What to watch at year’s-end
It’s been expected that exports would see a dip as US tariffs kicked in, and this may be the case.
However, exports normally begin to slow this time of year as the Christmas holidays get closer and the window to manufacture, ship, and sell goods before the holidays in the Western hemisphere, shrinks.
That said, as Christmas export demand tapers off, domestic spending begins to pick up in anticipation of the Lunar New Year.
In 2026, the nine-day holiday will stretch from February 14 to February 22.
This could be interesting in that as exports slow and imports increase there will likely be significant pressure on the local currency to depreciate. That’s not to mention inflationary pressure on the back of an increase in demand.
The SBV’s options, however, seem limited with its foreign currency reserves already significantly depleted and an interest rate hike before the Lunar New Year likely to be very politically unpopular.
With this in mind, it will be interesting to see what, if any, moves the central bank makes.