This is an interview with Hugo Bosch, host of Ho Chi Minh Securities’ Emerging Asia Podcast, about the impact the conflict in the Middle East is having on Vietnam’s stock market.
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Okay, so are you happy for me to record?
Sure. Yes.
Okay, cool.
All right, dude. So, I mean, I kind of went over the sort of structure and whatever yesterday, so I’ll just sort of get straight into it.
So I want to start with, first go back to sort of when they first started attacking Iran, and I’m just curious what was sort of the immediate reaction in this in the stock market and at HSC.
No, so indeed when the bombings did start taking place, I mean, there was of course, you know, a bit of a moment of shock and the market did react quite quickly.
So over the last month, effectively, the market has declined by about 11 percent.
Which is the immediate market —
I mean, this actually has recovered back a little bit from it from its overall lows.
Which then puts us at a year-to-date gain for the VN index of around six, sorry, minus 6 percent not loss, sorry, we’re still down.
So it’s it’s not, it’s it’s not good, but neither is it absolutely terrible, such as, you know, 2022 disaster style.
So, it’s not so bad.
Can I ask, were you guys anticipating this? Because I know that, like oil and gas prices, stocks were rising prior to this sort of happening.
I mean correlation is of course not causation, but you know —
I would say probably the mood on the ground was a little bit TACO.
Trump always chickens out, because of course, we had seen, you know, with the April tariffs in 2025, where basically he decided to back down.
And I think that the mood on the ground was really that while he may position his aircraft carriers off the coast of Iran, he would probably back down ultimately.
In the end, this proved to be wrong, but I think there certainly was that sense among some quarters of the market. And in regard to the rising oil and gas prices, that may indeed have been linked to the potential risk of an attack on Iran.
But I don’t think it was necessarily the belief it would happen.
Sure. Okay. And so moving forward then what’s the mood now a month in?
So I think I mean, as evidenced by today, there was a nice bounce in the market.
So I think the mood is certainly improving.
Of course, there are many announcements from Trump which seem to indicate that he would like to withdraw, and save some face and leave the conflict.
However, at the same time, there’s a lot of pressure going on in regards to the, of course, the price of oil which, even if America were to pack up today and halt the the war the destruction of infrastructure is going to lead to elevated oil and gas prices for the foreseeable future, which will have, you know, a considerable impact on on Vietnam’s economy.
Sure. And so on that then, Trump, how much of an impact does, like, what he says in particular have on sort of the decisions that you guys are making? Is what he says the most important thing right now or —
I’m sure he’d like to believe that.
So, of course, I think you’ve got to take his statements with certainly a very, very large grain of salt.
As you’ve seen in America, his comments do move the markets, and they, and what moves the American markets also has an impact on the Vietnam market as well.
So there is there certainly — certainly what he says on Truth Social does have an impact.
However, do we necessarily believe it’s going to happen and believe and take it as gospel? Certainly not.
There’s always an element of disbelief, I think, when dealing with these statements.
Okay. So with it being so, sort of, all over the shop, I’m just curious how you guys sort of plan around that — like what’s — what do you do?
Okay.
Well, I suppose in this term you’d want a, you know, you’d want a defensive portfolio in this sort of market, whereby it would be sectors which wouldn’t necessarily be immune to the oil and gas impact.
It would be, I mean, things like consumer staples and the like, but to a certain extent, it is the elephant in the room.
It can’t necessarily be ignored, and what is going on in the Persian Gulf.
Sure. And so, I mean, you mentioned consumer staples. What other sort of second and third order sort of impacts are you guys expecting?
Well, you can certainly see some of the negative impacts; it’s not going to be good for airlines, not good for travel.
Already, Vietnam Airlines is going to be discussing about — it may be curtailing some of its domestic routes.
I mean, jet fuel prices have already gone above $150 a barrel.
And of course, there is also the import issue because, of course, Vietnam imports its jet fuel from both Thailand and China, and they both put temporary export bans on said product.
So yes, it’s going to certainly be a squeeze for airlines and the aviation sector as a whole.
And in regard to — what else the more protected sectors — unfortunately, the whole thing runs along international lines. So the whole market will be affected by the news.
Do you guys have a time frame that you’re working on? I read some analysis today, and it was quite detailed — and they were sort of saying they’re expecting four to five weeks.
Um, no, you can’t put a target on that.
You know, nobody really knows.
Yeah, I was just — Yeah, like I said, I read that today. I was like, that’s dicey making — That’s a big call.
But yeah, cool. All right. I guess the macroeconomic factors — things like inflation — what are you guys sort of expecting, what are you planning for?
Right, you know it’s a direction that is certainly going to go up I mean their probably will be CPI 4 percent, if not a little higher. It certainly was going to put a lot of pressure on the economy and lending in general.
I mean, it’s — now I do apologise.
I’m afraid this is the kind of stuff which I thought we wouldn’t necessarily be talking about because now I’m now I as I’m conscious as I’m saying these things, I’m treading on the analyst’s toes. This is basically their domain.
Okay, cool.
So no, um, I’m much more ready to talk about, necessarily, the more generalities, in particular the impact on, because I know if this did go out as it is I’d be in trouble.
Sure. Okay. That’s fine. Moving on.
Then I guess sort of moving into like a more individual sort of level, like people not necessarily HSC, just in general, I mean, what are you hearing with respect to fuel prices for like the every person sort of on the street, like are people I know —
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
So that I mean of course we had basically fuel prices pre-war about 20,000 Vietnam dong a liter, and then, you know, they did spike to around 40,000 a liter, so a significant increase, but then they have since stabilized actually due to quite some proactive management from the government’s behalf, they end up — their stabilization fund and also they completely removed import duties for petroleum and other refined products.
And so now the price has settled.
I went today in the morning to check at the petrol station, and the price has settled to 24,000 Vietnam dong.
Okay. Was the petrol station busy or —?
It was usually busy.
I would — people were not lining up around the block.
It was it was actually relatively sedate, I’d say.
So I don’t — people are certainly not panicking.
Um, and I can tell from the rumble of traffic as I walk to work, it doesn’t seem to be an energy crisis going on.
Everyone’s hopping on their bikes and driving around as usual.
Um, it’s certainly certainly doesn’t appear that way in my corner of the city.
Sure. People that are concerned, is it more about supply or is it about price?
Oh, I think I think people are concerned about both ultimately.
I think no Vietnam certainly isn’t going to be running dry in the short term.
I think it’s numerous deals have been signed.
I believe there will be probably deals signed between other nations in order to supply Vietnam with petroleum products.
And at the same time, in regards to price, the government is keeping a very close eye on it, and they have their whole stabilisation fund ready to go if need be in order to keep it at a reasonable level.
So there is some careful planning around this point.
Okay. So you’re quietly confident?
I think I’m, I think, relatively sanguine about the crisis.
Okay, cool. All right. I just — I know when I was — back in 2022, I guess we had people sort of leaving the office early to go and line up and get petrol and things like that. I feel like that’s not happening this time around.
No, it’s certainly not.
I heard a few cases in Hanoi of long lines, but, once the supply case had been demonstrated, those lines evaporated.
So, that’s the only — that’s the only stories I’ve heard.
Okay, sure. Uh, okay, cool. Look, man, that’s enough for me. That’s plenty. Did you have anything else you wanted to add?
Um, what else could I talk about? Um, that’s it.
I think yes, that’s pretty much all of the main points that are worth mentioning in regards to the Iran crisis.
I mean, I can talk a little bit about the sectors which have been hit.
I mean for example if you look at it the — actually the energy sector in Vietnam month to date is down 15.4 percent, which indicates — sorry I’m trying to find you again — Sorry 15.4 percent.
So basically, in regards to the sector impact in Vietnam, if you look at it, the Vietnam index has, as I said, taken a hit of a bit of a decline around 11 percent.
And this is underperforming some Asian peers, such as Thailand, which has done quite well over the last month.
And however, it hasn’t done quite as badly as Indonesia uh which has seen around 18% route.
So in that sense, Vietnam is sort of sitting towards the lower end but not the worst of its ASEAN peers in terms of market performance.
What do you think that says about Vietnam’s energy market? The prices are going up, but the value of the sector is going down.
Sure.
Well, so actually this is where you can talk about the energy sector.
You can talk about your upstream companies and your downstream companies.
Those which, of course, are refining the fuel and selling it.
Of course, they’re needing to import it, especially for Nghi Son Refinery.
So this is going to be a net negative.
However, for the downstream firms, such as, you know, the companies which are going out and exploring and drilling, the high price of a barrel of oil is encouraging these contracts.
So this is actually a positive for them.
So it really depends on which part of the oil and gas sector you’re in.
I mean I kind of look at it I wonder if you know the price of oil is going up or fuel products is going up, but the sector’s going down.
It kind of says to me that there’s maybe some concern there that the energy sector is not going to profit from this quite the way that it might in other economies.
What would you think about that?
No, because it would be, and indeed it would be, the producers of oil who would be benefiting the most from this.
I mean, I believe the American oil and gas firms are doing particularly well from this crisis, due to the increased number of exports to Asia in the absence of the oil and gas coming from the Strait of Hormuz.
However, Vietnam no longer has a sufficient quantity of oil that it can use just for its own uses, and it does export oil.
It exports it to other nations in Asia.
However, it can’t use it itself because it’s the wrong type of oil for their refineries.
So what it does, it sells the oil and then buys a type that it can refine and turn into products.
So no, overall it still isn’t a net positive.
Okay, cool. so anything else you had on there or it’s — Do you have any strong opinions about sort of what’s happening? Is there anything you’re looking at?
Strong opinions are dangerous.
Is there anything you’re looking at and going, you know, that’s that’s wild or that doesn’t really make sense or
Okay.
Um, it’s fine if you’re not.
I just — no, no, not particularly.
Not in a huge sense.
Although I can simply say one of the winners from this conflict in the Vietnam market is Massanite Materials, MSR.
This is on UPCOM.
They have done rather well because they own one of the largest tungsten mines in the world.
So that particular ticker seems to have been immune from the overall 11 percent decline in the Vietnam index.
Cool. All right, man. I think we can kind of just wrap it up there —
Yeah, I’m a bit concerned now.
A bit concerned I’m going to lose my job.
What are you worried about?
I can’t have two strong opinions, basically.
Because I know it all sounds ridiculous, but if I start sort of treading on the toes of some of the analysts, then they might be quite annoyed.
So that’s just got to be borne in mind.
Okay. Uh, I mean, I would think it would be fine, but if you want to send me some sort of structure around things that you’re not allowed to say.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Would it be possible for you to send it to me beforehand, before you publish? Is that all right?
No, I’m not doing that. But if you send me some framework —
Okay.
Well, I have a think about it.
I think overall I think it’s it’s fine.
Yeah, I mean I don’t think there was anything super controversial in there.
Yeah, I think it turned out okay.
It’s well — it’s a pleasure talking — Just one other quick thing. What was your job description? What do you officially —
My job description is, officially, it’s research operations.
But I’d rather just be the host of the emerging Vietnam podcast by HSC.
Yeah. Okay. Yeah, I can do that. Okay, cool.
All right, Mark.
I hope I’ve given you some good content.
I know, I know some parts there I did wander off a little bit.
I mean, yeah, it’s all usable. We’ll see how it goes together.
It’s interesting, some people have said some really interesting stuff today.
I don’t know if you’ve been out looking at the one the security companies are sort of they usually send out like the end of the month.
Oh, yes.
Wrap of what’s happening. It’s been really interesting to see the different angles that people have taken on it.
Okay.
But anyway, this fits in with all of that kind of — But yeah, anyway, I’ll let you know how it goes.
Okay.
Thank you very much.
Let me know when you post it.
No worries. We’ll do, mate. Cheers. Your time.
Cheers.
All right.
Bye.
Bye.
Bye.