Vietnam pulled off another big quarter in terms of GDP growth in Q3, registering 8.23 percent, the fastest third-quarter growth rate since 2022, according to the National Statistics Office (NSO).
This follows on from GDP growth of 7.52 percent in the first half of 2025, and puts Vietnam on track to surpass the 8 percent GDP growth goal the government set at the beginning of the year.
In the current economic climate, with broad trade uncertainty and major institutions lowering forecasts around the region, this performance is somewhat of an anomaly worthy of a closer look.
Therefore, this article breaks down Vietnam’s GDP growth in Q3 2025 per the NSO data, including what’s driving this growth, where the demand is coming from, and how it’s being paid for.
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What drove Vietnam’s GDP expansion?
Vietnam’s 8.23 percent GDP growth in Q3 was mostly driven by services, which was up 8.49 percent year-on-year, and contributed 3.72 points to overall growth.
Notably, its makeup was diverse, with the top three subsectors: wholesale & retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; transportation and warehousing; and information and communication contributing 0.81, 0.61, and 0.45 points, respectively.
By contrast, industry and construction contributed 3.59 points; however, that mostly came from the manufacturing and processing subsector, which added 2.47 points to the overall total.
The sector also saw its share of Vietnam’s GDP increase from 36.37 percent in Q2 to 37.96 percent in Q3.
There was also a notable shift in growth drivers from services to industry and construction.
Their respective contributions to GDP growth in the first half of the year were 50.14 percent and 39.16 percent, but in Q3 they were a much more balanced 45.28 percent and 43.66 percent.
This speaks to Vietnam’s ongoing and increasing dependency on manufacturing and industrial output.
The remaining .94 percent was accounted for by agriculture, forestry and fisheries, with .37 percentage points, and product taxes minus product subsidies, with .57 points.
Of note, on a qualitative level, the NSO, in its Q3 socio-economic report, credits Vietnam’s economic performance to administrative reforms (the consolidation of 63 provinces down to 34) and science and technology, digital transformation, international integration, law making and enforcement, and private sector economic development policy.
It also notes the contribution of major celebrations, name-checking the 80th anniversary of the August Revolution and National Day, which it says “…aroused national pride, creating great motivation for people across the country to continue to strive and achieve socio-economic development goals.”
Where did it go?
In the first half of 2025, final consumption contributed 6.33 percentage points or about 84 percent of total GDP growth, while gross capital formation added 3.02 percentage points or around 40 percent.
This was offset by net exports, which reduced growth by 1.83 points with imports expanding faster than exports.
Interestingly, in the third quarter, the structure shifted slightly.
Final consumption’s share fell to roughly 59.76 percent (about 4.92 points of total growth), and capital formation’s share rose to 44.67 percent (around 3.68 points), with net exports remaining negative, trimming about 0.37 points from growth.
That is to say, Vietnam’s growth in Q3 2025 became more investment-driven, with household and government consumption moderating compared to the first half of the year.
How was it paid for?
Total investment in Vietnam in the third quarter of 2025 was estimated at VND 1,100.1 trillion or US$41.67 billion.
Of that, government spending contributed VND 343.0 trillion or US$12.99 billion.
The domestic private sector contributed VND 582.2 trillion or US$22.05 billion, with foreign direct investment accounting for VND 174.9 trillion or US$6.62 billion.
As a percentage of total investment, this represents a slight shift from private sector (domestic and FDI) spending, which accounted for 72 percent of investment in H1 to 68.82 percent in Q3, to government, which went from 28 percent to 31.18 percent over the same period.
Credit growth
It’s also worth noting that a lot of that investment looks to be borrowings.
Vietnam’s GDP grew roughly VND 678.5 trillion or about US$25.7 billion over the first 9 months of the year, with private credit increasing 13 percent, about VND 2.03 quadrillion, or US$76.9 billion, since the end of last year.
This means that for each US$1 of GDP growth, it cost about US$3 in credit. In the first half of the year, it cost just US$2.60.
What’s next?
Compared to H1, demand from final consumption slowed somewhat in Q3, with investment stepping in to pick up the slack.
With consumption drivers like the aforementioned public holidays and celebrations now passed, this trend will likely continue into Q4.
Credit growth also looks likely to increase further, with few signs of a policy shift on the table.
That is to say, overall, Q3 GDP data shows an economy on a strong growth trajectory, but largely powered by private credit, from which the returns are diminishing.
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This is an interview with Dr Nuno F. Ribeiro, Associate Professor, International Tourism & Hospitality Management at Copenhagen Business College, formerly of RMIT Vietnam. It
