The World Bank has downgraded its growth forecast for the Philippines to 5.3 percent for 2025, down from the 6.1 percent projection made in October 2024, according to its April 2025 World Bank East Asia and the Pacific Economic Update.
Key points:
- The Philippines recorded GDP growth of 5.7 percent in 2024.
- The April 2025 forecast projects 5.3 percent growth for 2025 and a modest recovery to 5.4 percent in 2026.
- The October 2024 forecast had been more optimistic, expecting 6.0 percent growth for 2024 and 6.1 percent for 2025.
Of note, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also revised down the Philippines’ GDP growth forecast for 2025 in its April 2025 World Economic Outlook. The new projections show real GDP expanding by 5.5 percent in 2025, slightly more optimistic than the World Bank.
Regional comparison:
| WB Update | – | Oct 2024 | Oct 2024 | Apr 2025 | Apr 2025 |
| Forecast Year | 2024 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Indonesia | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| Malaysia | 5.1 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 4.3 |
| Philippines | 5.7 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| Thailand | 2.5 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Vietnam | 7.1 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 6.1 |
| Cambodia | 6.0 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 4.5 |
| Lao PDR | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| Myanmar | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 1.5 |
See also: How to Start a Business in the Philippines 2025 for Foreign Firms