The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised down the Philippines’ GDP growth forecast for 2025 in its April 2025 World Economic Outlook, while inflation expectations have been nudged upward. The new projections show real GDP expanding by 5.5 percent in 2025, a modest downgrade from 5.8 percent in October 2024, with a forecast of 5.8 percent for 2026.
Key points:
- GDP growth: Lowered to 5.5% in 2025 and forecast at 5.8% in 2026.
- Inflation: Revised up to 2.9% in 2025 with a 2.9% forecast for 2026.
- Current account deficit: Improved slightly to -3.2% in 2025 (from -3.4%) and -3.2% in 2026.
- Unemployment: Projected to remain steady at 4.5% through 2026
This downgrade comes on the back of US trade policy uncertainty, however, it is relatively minor compared to the Philippines’ regional peers. Vietnam’s growth outlook, for example, for 2025 was downgraded sharply from 6.1 percent in October 2024 to just 5.2 percent. Likewise Indonesia saw its 2025 growth projection lowered from 5.1 to 4.7 percent.
See also: Economy news