The State Bank of Vietnam sold around US$1.5 billion via 180-day cancellable forwards on 25–26 August to ease pressure on the dong, according to a report from MB Securities and reported by The Investor → view source.
However, despite the intervention, the currency continued to weaken by month-end.
Key details:
- Contract terms: Forwards sold at VND 26,550 per USD, targeting banks with negative FX positions.
- Exchange rates: Interbank closed August at VND 26,345 per USD (+3.5% YTD). Free market reached VND 26,685 (+3.6% YTD). Reference rate at VND 25,240 (+3.7% YTD).
- Market reaction: Rates briefly cooled after the sale, then resumed climbing.
- Domestic pressures: Wide VND-USD interest rate differential, higher imports from U.S. zero-tariff goods, slower FDI inflows, and a persistent gold price gap.
- Outlook: MBS projects the average USD/VND rate at 26,600–26,750 in 2025, up 4.5–5% from the start of the year.
- Liquidity: SBV injected VND 361 trillion (US$13.7 billion) through OMO in August, offset by VND 386 trillion in maturities, net withdrawal of VND 25 trillion. Overnight interbank rates dropped to 1.6% before rebounding to 3.8%.
Vietnam’s monthly imports are roughly US$38–40 billion in 2025 and its current reserves are roughly US$80 billion. This means they are sufficient to only cover about two months of imports.
The IMF generally recommends at least three months of import cover as a minimum benchmark.
Falling below that threshold can weaken investor confidence, as reserves are also needed for external debt servicing and to buffer currency interventions.
See also: How Low Can the Vietnamese Dong Go? Why it’s Sliding & What Might Happen Next