Vietnam’s coffee sector is expected to recover in 2025/26, driven by improved weather, better resource input, and renewed investment in replanting, according to forecasts from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service post in Hanoi.
However, it forecasts ending stocks at 839,000 bags in MY 2025/26, compared to 939,000 bags in MY 2024/25 reflecting farmers withholding beans due to high prices and exporters shifting to just-in-time purchasing models due to price volatility.
Also of note:
- It projects national output to reach 31 million 60-kg bags, a rise from 29 million the year prior, with Robusta accounting for 30 million of that total.
- The increase is due to: improved weather conditions, better irrigation, increased fertiliser use, and active replanting efforts.
- It estimates domestic consumption at 4.0 million bags in MY 2024/25 and forecasts an increase to 4.9 million bags in MY 2025/26.
- Growth is attributed to the rise of café culture and specialty coffee, expansion of home brewing and takeaway habits, and increased presence of major chains and independent shops.
- Exports: It lowers MY 2024/25 export estimate to 25.8 million bags, down from 30 million in the previous year.
- It forecasts MY 2025/26 exports at 27 million bags, comprising:
- 23.7 million green bean bags
- 3.3 million soluble and roasted
- The export rebound is driven by strong price signals, gradual depletion of hoarded stocks, growing demand in Asian markets.
- Imports: It estimates coffee imports at 900,000 bags in MY 2024/25 and forecasts a slight drop to 800,000 bags in MY 2025/26.
- Imports consist primarily of Arabica and are used to diversify domestic blends.
See also: How to Open a Cafe in Vietnam 2025: Costs, Procedures & More
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See more: Top Vietnamese Coffee Brands 2025: Filter, Instant & More