The World Bank has projected Vietnam’s GDP growth to reach 6.6 percent in 2025, warning that short-term gains from export frontloading mask structural weaknesses in consumption, finance, fiscal reliance, and tech talent, according to its September 2025 Taking Stock Report → view source.
Some key points in the report inclde:
- Growth outlook: H1 2025 GDP up 7.5 percent year-on-year, but full-year growth to slow to 6.6 percent; further easing to 6.1 percent in 2026 before rebounding to 6.5 percent in 2027.
- Trade risks: Exports surged 28.3 percent to the U.S. on tariff frontloading, but reversal expected in H2; 26 percent of GDP depends on U.S. demand, with textiles, footwear, and wood products most exposed.
- Domestic demand: Wages rose 6.8 percent in real terms, yet private consumption slipped to 53 percent of GDP, below the East Asian median; high precautionary savings limit retail and services growth.
- Financial stability: Credit growth hit 18.1 percent (annualised), above SBV’s 16 percent target, concentrated in real estate; adjusted NPLs stood at 6.6 percent (end-2024) with banks’ reserve buffers halved in three years.
- Fiscal model: Revenues up 19.2 percent y/y, but 4.1 percent of GDP came from land sales, raising sustainability risks; public investment surged 36 percent y/y on megaprojects.
- High-tech ambitions: Vietnam aims to become a top-3 ASEAN AI hub and expand its bioeconomy to 7 percent of GDP by 2045; progress hampered by faculty shortages, underfunded universities, weak R&D links, and lack of global recognition.
That is to say, Vietnam’s growth engine is firing, but is being fueled by volatile drivers like export frontloading, land revenues, and rapid credit growth.
Long-term competitiveness rests on breaking systemic barriers in education, research, and innovation.
See also: Vietnam’s Economy 2025: GDP, FDI & Key Industries Overview