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Interest rate hike speculation in Vietnam heats up

The State Bank of Vietnam has raised interest rates on its treasury bills and outgoing loans by 10 basis points and 25 basis points, respectively. This is in line with unrelenting pressure on the dong that has seen the local currency hovering at all-time highs for weeks.

Whereas the bank has been spending its US dollar reserves in an attempt to keep the dong from devaluing too much, the reality is that it has already spent a lot–about US$2.95 billion according to ACB data and this has done little to weaken US dollar demand. With this in mind, an interest rate hike could be on the horizon.

Of note, yesterday Bloomberg ran an article about speculation from Maybank that an interest rate rise in Vietnam could be as soon as next week.

See also: The Dong’s Wild Ride: Unpacked

latest news

Vietnam bad debt hits 6.9 percent

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Vietnam market-economy review outcome postponed to August

Of note, Vietnam’s efforts to be redesignated a market economy for trade remedies purposes has been met with quite a bit of resistance in the United States. Its case for redesignation is also pretty shaky in a few areas, currency convertibility and government, for example. As such it’s not really clear which way the DOC might fall…

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Vietnam targeting GDP CAGR of 10.18 percent to 2030

Vietnam’s GDP is currently US$4,620 according to IMF data which would mean Vietnam’s GDP would need to grow at a compounded annual growth rate–a CAGR–of 10.18 percent. For comparison, in the last five years Vietnam’s GDP has grown on a CAGR of just 6.08 percent…

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What Does a Devalued Yen Mean for Vietnam?

Earlier this year the Japanese yen hit a 38-year low against the greenback and it’s currently sitting about 15 percent lower now than it was at the start of the year. Similarly, the Vietnamese dong took a big fall but has been propped up by the State Bank which has by extension kept the local currency higher against the Yen too. This article looks at what that might mean for Vietnam…

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Vietnam PM pushes car registration reduction, despite legal risks

Of note, concerns were raised by the Ministry of Finance last week, that a car registration fee reduction policy that applies only to locally made vehicles could contravene the European Vietnam Free Trade Agreement and Vietnam could be at risk of being sued. This was reportedly raised by the EU as a potential problem earlier this year…

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