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Currency: Vietnam dong faces growing pressure as black market premium jumps, July 4

Vietnam’s currency market showed further strain, Friday, with black market premiums widening and mixed shifts in interbank rates highlighting ongoing liquidity tension, according to the latest data from the State Bank of Vietnam.

Central exchange rate rises amid ongoing stress

The State Bank of Vietnam set the central exchange rate at VND 25,116 per US dollar, marking a 25 dong increase from the previous day.

Meanwhile, Google’s mid-market rate slipped to VND 26,175, down 25 dong, highlighting a divergence between official guidance and broader market sentiment.

Black market gap continues to grow

Black market rates showed further depreciation pressure, with the buy rate at VND 26,420 and the sell rate at VND 26,520.

The mid-market rate reached VND 26,470, widening the premium over Google’s mid-market rate to 1.13 percent, up from 0.84 percent the day before. The absolute mid-market gap also increased significantly, from 220 dong to 295 dong.

Mixed interbank rate movements reflect liquidity strain

Interbank interest rates moved unevenly. The overnight rate rose to 3.91 percent from 3.81 percent, and the one-week rate edged up to 4.03 percent from 4.01 percent.

The two-week rate remained steady at 4.09 percent. However, the one-month rate fell sharply to 3.82 percent from 4.67 percent, while the three-month rate held at 4.5 percent. The six-month rate eased slightly to 5.12 percent from 5.14 percent.

Repos and T-bill operations adjusted

Repos showed notable changes, with seven-day volumes dropping sharply to US$191 million from US$351 million. A new 91-day repo operation was introduced, totalling US$4.7 million.

Meanwhile, T-bill issuance surged to US$313 million, a significant jump from just US$7 million previously, indicating active liquidity absorption by the central bank.

Analysis

The widening black market spread, rising short-term rates, and active liquidity operations underscore sustained depreciation pressure on the dong and highlight the delicate balance the State Bank faces in managing currency stability without triggering additional stress on an already debt-heavy domestic market.

See also: Right Now, a Weak Dong Could be Good for Vietnam. Here’s Why.

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