Vietnamese and global coffee prices have fallen steeply since early May, with market experts pointing to oversupply and reduced speculative interest as the key drivers, Zing News has reported→view source.
Key details:
- Oversupply: Robusta futures down nearly 28–30 percent; Arabica down over 21 percent since early May.
- Domestic impact: Central Highlands coffee prices now VND 96,000/kg, down VND 30,000/kg from early 2025 highs.
- Brazil harvest: Nguyen Nam Hai (Chairman, VICOFA) stated that Brazil’s current harvest is yielding better-than-forecast volumes, helping cool recent price surges. He noted that prices typically fall during Brazil’s peak harvest season.
- Investor behaviour: Hai also observed that global tensions are pushing speculative investors to shift capital toward high-return commodities like oil and gold, away from coffee.
- Commodity rotation: Nguyen Quang Binh (market expert) noted that rising global oil prices amid armed conflicts have led funds to pull out of coffee and cocoa markets. He reported YTD declines: cocoa down 27 percent, Robusta 19.5 percent, Arabica 1.5 percent.
- Expert views: Both Hai and Binh expect downward pressure to continue, with more Brazilian supply entering the market and weak capital flows in coffee.
- Outlook: Binh forecasts no near-term recovery in prices under current market conditions.
That is to say, the price slump reflects a combination of physical market oversupply and broader shifts in global capital flows, with coffee currently out of favour among investors amid rising geopolitical and financial volatility.
See also: Vietnam’s Coffee Industry in 2025: Projections, Key Players & Growing Regions
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