The Philippines’ 2026 growth forecast has been cut to 3.7 percent from 5.4 percent, marking one of the sharpest downgrades in the region, in the World Bank’s April Economic Update.
Growth is projected to rebound to 5.6 percent in 2027, indicating expectations of a recovery after weaker near-term performance.
The economy expanded 4.4 percent in 2025, below earlier projections of 5.3 percent.
Compared to regional peers, the Philippines’ outlook shows greater volatility, with near-term growth now below most Southeast Asian economies.
TABLE: GDP growth rates, World Bank Economic Update April 2026
| Apr 2026 forecast | Oct 2025 forecast | ||||||
| 2015–19 | 2020–24 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2025 | 2026 | |
| Cambodia | 8.0 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.3 |
| Indonesia | 5.0 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Lao PDR | 6.6 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
| Malaysia | 4.9 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| Myanmar | 6.4 | −3.3 | −1.3 | 2.0 | 4.0 | −1.8 | 3.0 |
| Philippines | 6.6 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| Thailand | 3.4 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Timor-Leste | 5.2 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.4 |
| Vietnam | 7.1 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 6.1 |