Fitch Ratings has warned that Vietnam’s push for rapid economic growth despite higher US tariffs could worsen already high leverage, according to a statement on its website → view source.
While reforms, including Basel III-aligned capital standards by 2033, could improve transparency and policy credibility, faster credit growth risks asset quality deterioration and constrains sovereign ratings, the statement said.
Key points in the statement:
- The government has set a 2025 GDP growth target of 8.3–8.5 percent, which is above Fitch’s forecast of 5.6 percent.
- Leverage stood at 135 percent of GDP at the end of 2024, compared to a median of 53 percent for ‘BB’-rated peers.
- The medium-term goal is to achieve average annual growth of 10 percent between 2026 and 2030, compared to Fitch’s baseline of 6 percent.
- Fitch warned that faster credit growth could worsen already high leverage and increase asset quality risks in the banking sector.
See also: It’s Time to Talk About Vietnam’s Credit Growth Policy…