In its Global Economic Prospects June 2024 report, the World Bank has forecast Vietnam’s GDP growth to come in at 5.5 percent this year. This is unchanged from its January 2024 projection.
This is broadly inline with projections from the IMF in which it forecast 5.8 percent growth back in April and a report from Vietnam’s Institute for Economic and Policy Research which found that Vietnam is unlikely to reach its GDP growth target of 6.5 percent by the end of the year. The institute’s Vietnam Annual Economic Report 2024 instead found that GDP growth is likely to come in around 5.85 percent.
Last year, Vietnam’s GDP growth target was set 6.5 percent, however, according to government figures, it rounded out the year at just 5.05 percent. This was in large part the result of a broad global economic downturn around the world that saw consumers tighten their belts and reduce spending on the kind of goods that have become central to Vietnam’s manufacturing industry and, subsequently, exports.
This year, though exports have picked up–up 14.2 percent in the first five months of this year over 2023–many of the other challenges Vietnam’s economy faced last year have not disappeared. In particular, the currency has been somewhat volatile, credit growth has remained well below target, and the real estate sector’s recovery after a tumultuous two years, still remains relatively tepid.
That said Vietnam’s General Office of Statistics found that Vietnam’s GDP grew at 6.93 percent in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the second quarter of 2023 for an average quarterly growth rate for the first half of the year of 6.42 percent.
See also: Vietnam’s Economy in the First Half of 2024: Unpacked