In its East Asia and The Pacific Economic Update for October the World Bank has said it expects Vietnam’s GDP to grow by 4.7 percent this year and 5.5 percent next year, The Investor is reporting. The publication notes that Vietnam is now trailing regional peers the Philippines (5.6 percent), Cambodia (5.5 percent), and Indonesia (5 percent).
Eds note: What’s of particular interest in this report are the revised forecasts from the World Bank. In particular, Vietnam’s forecast has been revised down 1.6 points which is four times the second biggest revision (Malaysia was revised down 0.4 points). There has to be some pause for thought here as to why World Bank growth forecasts are so wildly out for Vietnam but not the seven other ASEAN member states listed. The quality of the data? The quality of the analysis? Maybe they lack of transparency in Vietnam’s response to the global economic challenges? Or something else altogether?
World Bank growth forecasts, October 2023
| Forecasts for 2023 | Change | Forecasts for 2024 | Change | |||
| April | October | % | April | October | % | |
| Indonesia | 4.9 | 5 | 0.1 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Malaysia | 4.3 | 3.9 | -0.4 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 0.1 |
| Philippines | 5.6 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 5.9 | 5.8 | -0.1 |
| Thailand | 3.6 | 3.4 | -0.2 | 3.7 | 3.5 | -0.2 |
| Vietnam | 6.3 | 4.7 | -1.6 | 6.5 | 5.5 | -1 |
| Cambodia | 5.2 | 5.5 | 0.3 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 0.4 |
| Lao PDR | 3.9 | 3.7 | -0.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | -0.1 |
| Myanmar | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | – | 2 | – |
Source: World Bank East Asia and the Pacific Economic Update October 2023