The World Bank, in its East Asia and the Pacific Economic Update October 2024 has increased its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam for this year from 5.5 percent in April to 6.1 percent in October. It does, however, warn that this strong growth may not last.
“Countries like Vietnam have benefited from “connecting” major trading partners as global tensions rose, but the scope for playing such a role may be shrinking,” it says.
“Vietnamese firms exporting to the US saw sales grow almost 25 percent faster than those exporting to other destinations over the period 2018–2021. However, economies may now be limited to playing a “one-way connector” role.”
“While countries have been able to harness imports and investment from China to boost exports to the US, investment from the US has not boosted exports to China. Furthermore, the application of more stringent rules of origin may limit even the one-way connector role.”
The World Bank goes on to recommend “deep trade agreements with large trading partners” to ensure continued economic growth.
GDP growth forecast, World Bank, October 2024
Oct 2024 forecast | Apr 2024 forecast | |||||
Country | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2024 | 2025 |
Indonesia | 5.3 | 5 | 5 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5 |
Malaysia | 8.9 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
Philippines | 7.6 | 5.5 | 6 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.9 |
Thailand | 2.5 | 3.2 | 3 | 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 |
Viet Nam | 8.1 | 5 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 6 |
Cambodia | 5.1 | 5 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 6.1 |
Lao PDR | 2.7 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 4 | 4.1 |
Myanmar | -12 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 2 | 2.4 |
Timor-Leste | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 4.5 |
See also: Vietnam’s Economy: Everything You Need to Know 2024