Despite rising nearly 100 points this year, Vietnam’s VN-Index rally is far from broad-based. A closer look reveals that just four stocks — all tied to the Vingroup ecosystem — account for nearly 90 percent of gains. In a challenging global economic environment, this concentration raises questions about the sustainability of the rally and highlights the need for careful scrutiny before jumping in… Read More »

How Low Can the Vietnamese Dong Go? Why It’s Sliding & What Might Happen Next

Vietnam’s dong has weakened 2.83 percent this year, diverging from regional peers, as State Bank interventions have the currency overvalued and FX reserves depleted. With this in mind, this article looks at how it’s reached this point, what is happening now, and where it might be headed next… Read More »

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Banking and finance news

Asian Bond Monitor report confirms structural weaknesses in Vietnam market

Vietnam’s bond market continues to show key structural weaknesses, according to the Asia Bond Monitor June 2025→view source.

While Vietnam’s bond market continues to expand, the Asia Bond Monitor data highlights long-standing constraints including a narrow investor base, limited corporate participation, and short-duration issuances.

This may affect resilience as the economy targets higher public investment and debt-financed growth, the report says.

Financial hub ambitions overshadowed by transparency, enforcement, governance issues

Vietnam’s ambitions to become a credible regional financial hub risk falling short without stronger transparency, enforcement, and governance, Douglas Jackson, Managing Director at Alvarez & Marsal, has warned in an article published by Vietnam Investment Review→view source.

While new laws set an important foundation, the sector’s persistent trust gap and structural weaknesses remain unresolved, Jackson says.

Vietnam dong continues to fall against greenback

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has continued to carry out open market operations, though at a reduced pace.

Notably, there were US$1.46 billion worth of reverse repos outstanding as of the close of business June 26.

The SBV also returned to issuing treasury bills this week, with US$479 million worth distributed.

The value of the dong fell this week against the greenback, with the central exchange rate reaching a new low of VND 25,058 to the dollar.

Of note, this time last week, it was down by 2.81 percent over the start of the year.

As of close of business June 19, that had jumped to 2.92 percent (based on the central exchange rate set by the SBV).

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Economy news

Fitch says Vietnam GDP to grow 5.6 percent in 2025, affirms Vietnam at BB+ rating

Vietnam’s GDP is forecast to grow 5.6 percent in 2025 and 5.3 percent in 2026, down from 7.1 percent in 2024, Fitch Ratings has said→view source.

The ratings agency has also affirmed Vietnam’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR at BB+ with a stable outlook, citing strong growth prospects.

It has, however, also highlighted risks from rising leverage, trade policy uncertainty, and structural weaknesses in governance and the banking sector.

IMF urges Vietnam to boost policy flexibility amid trade tensions

The IMF’s 2025 Article IV mission to Vietnam wrapped up this week, with mission chief Paulo Medas warning that global trade tensions and financial uncertainty pose serious risks to the country’s outlook→view source.

Key details:

Trade uncertainty: Medas cautioned that high global tariffs expected from Q3 2025 could slow Vietnam’s growth. Risks are compounded by tightening global financial conditions and high corporate debt.
Policy flexibility: He urged the government to rely more on fiscal tools to cushion shocks, noting that public debt remains low. Monetary policy, however, has limited room and should focus on anchoring inflation expectations.
Exchange rate: Medas emphasised the importance of allowing greater exchange rate flexibility to help the economy adjust to external pressures.
Banking risks: Strengthening bank supervision, capital buffers, and resolution frameworks were highlighted as key to preventing renewed financial stress.
Reform priorities: Medas strongly supported the government’s reform agenda—particularly on institutional efficiency, private sector development, infrastructure, and governance—but warned that execution will determine impact.
Statistical capacity: He noted Vietnam’s rapid growth is outpacing its economic data systems and called for urgent improvements to support effective policy making.

Food and beverage news

Vietnam food & beverage industry revenue down 10.1 percent in Q1: FiinGroup

Vietnam’s F&B industry revenue fell 10.1 percent quarter-on-quarter, largely driven by a 15.4 percent drop in domestic sales after Tet, according to a report from FiinGroup→view source.

Key details in the report include:

Exports of flour, seafood, and processed foods grew. Dairy, sugar, beer and malt faced weak domestic sales.
Profitability compressed by rising input costs, including raw materials, logistics, and FX. Agricultural price drops, notably rice, further reduced margins.
U.S. tariffs pose structural risk. Long-term higher tariffs could erode profitability for seafood, cashews, and coffee.
Domestic demand for discretionary items remains soft amid inflation. Beer and premium dairy sales were particularly weak.

The FiinGroup analysis speaks to a complex operating environment for Vietnam’s F&B industry in 2025.

Export demand remains solid, but profit risks from US tariffs, cost inflation, and soft domestic demand are mounting.

Vietnam’s fragmented food safety system leaves risks unaddressed, says Alinea International

Vietnam’s food safety culture remains weak, with gaps in hygiene, enforcement, and legal frameworks leaving the public exposed to foodborne illness, according to Brian G. Bedard, director of Food Safety and Animal Health at Alinea International→view source.

In an interview with Vietnam Investment Review, Bedard warned that the country’s current system relies too heavily on voluntary standards and lacks a unified enforcement agency.

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Pharmaceuticals news

Private pharma expansion faces risks in raw materials, R&D and regulatory delays

While Resolution 68 offers a strong policy foundation for expanding Vietnam’s private pharmaceutical sector, its success will depend heavily on overcoming entrenched structural challenges, Lawyer Ngo Thanh Hai of LNT & Partners has argued in an opinion piece published by the Vietnam Investment Review→view source.

Ngo essentially argues that unless institutional reforms are prioritised, particularly in streamlining regulatory processes, developing domestic input capacity, and strengthening pharma education, Vietnam’s private sector will struggle to achieve the vision set out in Resolution 68.

Policy news

PM says gov’t to crackdown on currency, gold speculation to tackle Middle East conflict risks

Vietnam’s government intends to mitigate economic risks arising from escalating Middle East conflict by stepping up action against speculation in gold and foreign currency markets, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh told a high-level meeting on 23 June, VietnamNet has reported→view source.

This announcement signals the government’s need to be seen as proactive in managing currency stability, though it is not clear that speculation is a primary driver of current market pressures or that administrative crackdowns alone will have a significant impact.

Real estate news

Japan’s Nippon Koei to advise Vietnamese developer on Long Thanh industrial park project

Japanese engineering consultancy Nippon Koei has been hired by Dong Nai Tan Hiep Industrial Park to advise on its Bau Can – Tan Hiep Industrial Park project, VN Express has reported→view source.

The project reflects a growing trend of Vietnamese developers engaging foreign expertise to design industrial parks that meet international environmental and technical standards.

Retail news

CRC targets Vietnam expansion with new GO! stores and hypermarkets

Thai retail giant Central Retail Corporation (CRC) plans to invest 45–47 billion baht (US$1.25–1.31 billion) over the next three years under its “New Heights, Next Growth” strategy, with accelerated expansion in Vietnam a core pillar, The Bangkok Post has reported→view source.

CRC’s focus on rolling out GO! hypermarkets and supermarkets in both major and smaller cities speaks to the potential in the Vietnam market, with rising urbanisation and growing demand for modern retail formats.

The strategy could also reflect an understanding that Vietnam’s retail sector still offers significant room for growth, particularly outside the main urban centres.

Stock market news

Foreign traders net-buy US$23.20 million of HoSE stocks

Over the last five trading sessions to the close of business on June 26, foreign investors net-bought US$23.20 million worth of HCMC Stock Exchange stocks.

This brings the current balance for the year to negative US$1.54 billion.

Foreign trader activity, last five trading days

	Buy		Sell		Change
Date	VND	US$	VND	US$	VND	US$
20/6	3,311	$126.76	3,884	$148.70	-573	-$21.94
23/6	1,659	$63.51	1,825	$69.87	-166	-$6.36
24/6	2,883	$110.38	2,655	$101.65	228	$8.73
25/6	1,882	$72.05	1,706	$65.31	176	$6.74
26/6	1,892	$72.43	2,163	$82.81	-271	-$10.38
Total	11,627	$445.14	12,233	$468.34	-606	-$23.20

VND = billions; US$ = millions; source: HSX

Trade news

US tariffs: Vietnamese firms shift to automation and market diversification, PwC survey shows

A new PwC Vietnam survey shows that local manufacturers are accelerating automation, lean manufacturing, and market diversification in response to the prospect of a 46 percent US tariff→view source.

The findings reveal that firms are looking beyond short-term cost-cutting and moving toward more structural adjustments to maintain competitiveness.

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Tourism news

Club Med’s Vietnam sales surge 32 percent in 2024 on ski, luxury travel demand

Club Med’s total sales from Vietnam rose 32 percent year-on-year, driven by rising demand for ski and upscale all-inclusive holidays, the company has said in a press release→view source.

Hokkaido resorts accounted for 56 percent of bookings from Vietnam for ski travel in 2024, followed by strong sales to the Maldives and Bali.

The week ahead

There are a handful of events coming up this week. For more information, see: Doing Business in Vietnam: Events Directory 2025.

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