Vietnam may lose up to US$37 billion in export revenue to the US if tariffs of 20 to 40 percent announced by President Donald Trump take effect, according to a government assessment prepared for Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh’s advisory council, and reported by Bloomberg→view source.
Key details:
- Export decline forecast: Up to one-third of Vietnam’s total US exports, currently valued at US$120 billion, could be affected.
- Sector impact: Electronics faces the largest hit with a potential US$15 billion drop, followed by machinery, garments, footwear and furniture.
- Geopolitical framing: The internal document says Trump’s tariff agenda aims “to restrain China’s ‘galloping’ development and rebuild its position.”
The report underscores the severity of trade risks facing Vietnam amid escalating US protectionism.
With key industries exposed and neither the US nor Vietnamese governments clarifying details of the deal, firms remain in a state of uncertainty, complicating efforts to adapt supply chains and secure market access.
Moreover, Vietnam’s exports to the US are a major pillar of its economy—an estimated US$37 billion cut could have significant implications for growth, employment, and investor sentiment.
See also: Trump’s Vietnam Trade Deal Announcement: Sectors to Watch