Export turnover in the second half of 2025 is projected to fall by 20 percent, equal to a loss of US$6.2–6.5 billion, with overall growth slowing to around 3.85 percent if a 20 percent US tariff is imposed, according to Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Environment.

In a worst-case scenario, with a 46 percent tariff, second-half exports could drop by as much as US$12.3 billion, Tuoi Tre has reported→view source.

Key details:

Scenario 1 (10% tariff): Exports largely unaffected; growth maintained at 4 percent.
Scenario 2 (20% tariff): Major impact, with second-half turnover down by 20 percent.
Scenario 3 (46% tariff): Exports could plunge by about US$12.3 billion in H2 2025.

That is to say, heavily dependent on the US market, Vietnam’s agricultural sector faces significant downside risks from new tariffs.

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