Vietnam’s GDP growth is expected to ease to 6.2 percent in 2025 and 6.0 percent in 2026, as global trade tensions and policy uncertainty weigh on exports and foreign investment, according to the latest OECD Economic Outlook.
Key details:
- Slower growth ahead: After growing 7.1 percent in 2024, Vietnam’s GDP is projected to slow due to weaker exports and softer foreign direct investment inflows.
- Export dependence: The US accounts for 30 percent of Vietnam’s exports; a potential rise in US tariffs from 10 percent to 46 percent poses a major downside risk.
- Inflation pressure: Inflation is expected to rise to 3.7 percent in 2025 and 3.8 percent in 2026, driven by strong domestic demand and increases in wages and administered prices.
- Policy stance: Monetary policy remains accommodative, but the central bank is advised to stay alert to inflation risks. Fiscal policy will continue to support growth via public investment, though it should turn neutral as inflation rises.
- Structural reform needs: The OECD calls for reforms to boost domestic linkages from foreign investment, expand social protections, and accelerate the shift to renewable energy.
See also: Vietnam’s Economy 2025: GDP, FDI & Key Industries Overview
Around Southeast Asia
Indonesia: Indonesia’s real GDP is projected to grow by 4.7 percent in 2025 and 4.8 percent in 2026, according to the OECD Economic Outlook 2025. Inflation is forecast to rise modestly to 2.3 percent in 2025 and 3 percent in 2026.
See also: Indonesia’s OECD outlook sees steady growth through 2025, 2026
Philippines: The Philippines is forecast to grow by 5.6 percent in 2025 and 6.0 percent in 2026, driven by resilient household consumption and a gradual investment recovery. Inflation is projected to ease to 2.0 percent in 2025.