Indonesia’s GDP growth for 2025 has been revised down to 4.8 percent, with 2026 growth forecast at 4.7 percent, according to the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook Update, July 2025→view source.
Key details
- This positions Indonesia ahead of major ASEAN economies like Thailand (2.1 percent) and Singapore (2.3 percent) in 2025.
- Inflation forecasts were revised down, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for 2025 cut to 1.5 percent from 2.2 percent, and 2026 CPI reduced to 1.9 percent from 2.7 percent.
- This inflation revision may ease pressure on monetary policy and reflects improving price stability in Southeast Asia’s largest economy.
Indonesia’s projected 2025 GDP growth of 5.1 percent places it behind Vietnam (7 percent), the Philippines (5.6 percent), and Cambodia (5.2 percent), but ahead of ASEAN averages (4.4 percent), Thailand (2.1 percent), and Malaysia (4.2 percent).
In terms of inflation, Indonesia’s 1.5 percent CPI forecast for 2025 is among the lowest in the region, below the ASEAN average of 2.4 percent and far below outliers like Myanmar (30 percent).
ASEAN+3: AMRO Growth and Inflation Projections, 2025–26
| GDP (Percent year-on-year) | CPI (Percent year-on-year) | |||||||
| 2025 | July Update | 2025 | July Update | |||||
| 2025f | 2026f | 2025f | 2026f | 2025f | 2026f | 2025f | 2026f | |
| ASEAN+3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 1 |
| Plus-3 | 4.1 | 4 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| China | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Hong Kong, China | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Japan | 1.3 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| Korea | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2 | 1.9 |
| ASEAN | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 3 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.7 |
| Brunei Darussalam | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Cambodia | 5.8 | 6 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Indonesia | 5 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Lao PDR | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 10.1 | 6.4 |
| Malaysia | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2 | 2.2 |
| Myanmar | 1 | 1 | –1.0 | 1.5 | 25 | 18 | 30 | 28 |
| The Philippines | 6.3 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 3.2 |
| Singapore | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1 | 0.8 |
| Thailand | 2.9 | 3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Vietnam | 6.5 | 6.2 | 7 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 3 | 3.4 | 3 |
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