Vietnam’s deepening trade engagement with the United States could reduce Argentina’s longstanding dominance as a grain supplier, according to a report by the Rosario Grain Exchange.
Key details:
- Current market share: Argentina supplies over 50 percent of Vietnam’s corn and 65 percent of its soybean meal imports by value.
- Shift to U.S. grains: Vietnamese buyers have signed initial contracts worth US$800 million for U.S. corn, soybean meal, wheat, and distillers grains, with planned imports up to US$2 billion.
- Tariff avoidance strategy: Vietnam is increasing U.S. agricultural purchases to reduce exposure to potential “reciprocal” tariffs under President Trump’s trade policy.
- Global implications: The Rosario Exchange warned the shift could impact Argentina’s status in other export markets, noting the country’s dependence on agri-exports for foreign currency.
- Argentina’s position: The country remains the top global supplier of soybean oil and meal and third in corn production.
Of note, Vietnam may enhance its reputation as a rational and strategic economic actor by demonstrating an ability to respond swiftly to evolving global trade dynamics—Its willingness to adjust import patterns and engage the United States directly shows a pragmatic understanding of realpolitik.
However, the optics of this shift also carry risks.
By visibly pivoting its procurement to the US in the context of tariff threats and trade deficit complaints, Vietnam could be seen as acquiescing to pressure rather than asserting an independent, multilateral trade strategy.
This could lead to perceptions that Vietnam’s economic policy is overly susceptible to the demands of powerful export markets, which may unsettle its other trading partners.
See also: Vietnam Trade: Exports, Imports & FTAs