The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has maintained its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam at 6.0 percent, citing strong manufacturing, resilient domestic consumption, and increased public investment, according to its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2024: Vietnam. Notably the report appears to have been compiled and completed prior to the tariff announcement made last week.
Key factors supporting the outlook include:
– Gradual global demand recovery, benefiting exports
– Acceleration in disbursement of public investment
– Stable monetary policy and improvements in capital markets
However, the ADB cautions that Vietnam faces persistent structural challenges:
– Slow productivity growth and low value-added in exports
– Weak links between foreign-invested and domestic firms
– Rising climate risks and energy transition costs
Also of note:
- Fiscal policy is expected to remain supportive, with a planned budget deficit of 4 percent of GDP in 2025.
- Inflation is forecast to rise modestly to 3.8 percent, still within the government’s target of 4–4.5 percent.
- Credit growth remains accommodative, although the banking sector faces pressure from bad debts and capital adequacy concerns.